Values are what bring distinction to your life. You don't find them, you choose them. And when you do, you're on the path to fulfillment.
Verified by Psychology Today
The remarkable ways we gain insights
Gary Klein Ph.D.
There are no fool-proof ways to identify experts. But there are some reasonable criteria. Each has its limitations, but each can be an important marker.
In contrast to big data, the small data approach tries to collect as little data as possible, ideally just a single data point—but a data point that swings a decision.
Designers may simplify cues and capabilities to make things easier. Unfortunately, making the job easier in normal operations can make it impossible under abnormal conditions.
In making a decision, should we consult our intuition before we do the analyses, or after, so we don't bias the analyses? 9 factors to consider.
How can we motivate people? We can provide incentives, or dangle a promotion, or threaten to fire them...but there's an easy, inexpensive, and effective approach.
When we think of areas of expertise, weather forecasting comes out high on the list. Forecasters get rapid and accurate feedback, and they have become masters at using AI tools.
The miners grumbled about having to waste their time on a 2-day safety training exercise. Their attitude changed after 30% of them "perished" in the virtual world scenario.
Many organizations put new hires through a rigorous training program and wash them out if they can't keep up. That's a mistake. The evaluation pressure gets in the way of learning.
Hyperlinks are critical for using our smartphones, using touchscreens, navigating the internet. Yet we take them for granted. How did they get invented?
Chess computers have an unfair advantage — they just have to analyze the board. What would happen if we required the computer to actually move the pieces?
The Dreyfus five-stage model of expertise claims that novices begin with tactical rules, but in many tasks that doesn't happen and in other tasks trainees get stuck in procedures.
Forget about man versus machine, the real challenge is man plus machine. Humans add value to advanced computer models and AI in fields such as chess and weather forecasting.
Countering the exaggerated claims of researchers in the fields of Decision Making, Heuristics and Biases, Evidence-Based Performance, Sociology, and Information Technology.
"Cognitizing" a scenario taps into behind-the-scenes mental activities such as reading a situation and picking up on subtle cues. It's about how to think, not just what to do.
Ten cognitive requirements designed to help instructors inject cognitive skills into their training programs.
The 1998 map of our cognitive sources of power still seems relevant. However, an updated version distinguishes the knowledge that we acquire from ways we can apply that knowledge.
Much effort goes into national disaster plans. But actual incidents require improvisation and coordination between agencies that cannot be planned in advance.
Researchers are looking at heuristics the wrong way — as sources of bias and error. In fact, they are powerful strategies for making inferences under uncertainty and ambiguity.
Critics want to automate the tasks of experts. Three reasons to keep experts central in decision making: Frontier thinking, social engagement, and responsibility for their actions.
Anticipatory thinking is the way we imagine how unexpected events may affect our plans, alerting us to potential threats. But what are the dysfunctional tendencies that block it?
The book Moneyball makes three shaky claims about baseball scouts: that they lack expertise, can't judge talent, and refuse to use statistics. None of these claims holds up.
Too many commentaries on the 2016 election offer single-cause explanations. A Causal Landscape may help us maintain perspective and draw the right lessons for the future.
This new concept integrates the different fields that try to improve mental and physical performance.
The Heuristics and Biases (HB) movement has had a tremendous influence and has generated the field of Behavioral Economics. However, the HB community has its own set of biases.
There seems to be a growing perception that experts are hopelessly biased and shouldn't be trusted to make important decisions. This belief is clearly mistaken and also dangerous.
Do you want to change a dysfunctional organizational culture? Speeches, values statements — none of these make a dent. But there may be a simple strategy that works.
It is important to notice what doesn't happen: events that were expected but didn't occur. Why are some people better at this than others? What does it take to spot the omissions?
We use our expectancies to detect events that were supposed to happen but didn't. Parents worry when it gets "too quiet" in the next room where the young children are playing.
We all know the frustration of hitting an impasse, unable to find a solution to an important problem. Studying examples of people who were successful can provide some useful hints.
A mindset is a belief that orients the way we handle situations. Our mindsets help us spot opportunities but they can trap us in self-defeating cycles.
Gary Klein, Ph.D., is a senior scientist at MacroCognition LLC. His most recent book is Seeing What Others Don't: The remarkable ways we gain insights.