A Hovercraft Full of Eels

Intuition

Why Expert Predictions So Often Fail

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on February 23, 2026

Why expert predictions often fail—and why forecasting is the wrong way to judge what real expertise actually delivers.

Why expert predictions often fail—and why forecasting is the wrong way to judge what real expertise actually delivers.

Artificial Intelligence

AI Can Make Dishonesty Easier

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on January 19, 2026

AI doesn’t just automate tasks—it can make dishonesty easier to rationalize and more likely to happen. The question is whether we’ll notice when we let it.

AI doesn’t just automate tasks—it can make dishonesty easier to rationalize and more likely to happen. The question is whether we’ll notice when we let it.

Ethics and Morality

Ignorance of Your Values Is No Excuse

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on December 22, 2025

We often avoid facts not out of indifference but because we suspect they'll wake up values we'd rather keep quiet.

We often avoid facts not out of indifference but because we suspect they'll wake up values we'd rather keep quiet.

Psychology

Small Effects, Big Stories

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on November 24, 2025

Small, statistically significant results can become big stories when they fit the right narrative—especially if we’re motivated to believe them.

Small, statistically significant results can become big stories when they fit the right narrative—especially if we’re motivated to believe them.

Artificial Intelligence

When AI Acts Human—But Lacks Humanity

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on October 29, 2025

Conversational AIs are getting better at sounding human. But when their goals misalign with ours, the consequences can be surprisingly personal.

Conversational AIs are getting better at sounding human. But when their goals misalign with ours, the consequences can be surprisingly personal.

Heuristics

Why You Can’t Win With a Tomato

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on September 22, 2025

We rely on shortcuts to judge quality—but what happens when those shortcuts are easily faked?

We rely on shortcuts to judge quality—but what happens when those shortcuts are easily faked?

Artificial Intelligence

Performing Character Isn’t the Same as Having It

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on August 18, 2025

ChatGPT says I’m brilliant. Every time. But that’s not character—it’s code. And it misses what really matters.

ChatGPT says I’m brilliant. Every time. But that’s not character—it’s code. And it misses what really matters.

Cognition

The Solution Problem: Why Solving Problems Often Creates More

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on July 14, 2025

When solutions are everywhere, our standards shift. Are we solving real problems—or just creating new ones to fix?

When solutions are everywhere, our standards shift. Are we solving real problems—or just creating new ones to fix?

Artificial Intelligence

Why We’re All Just Making It Up (Even When We’re Not)

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on June 9, 2025

AI can explain its answers. So can we. But what if those explanations are just stories we tell to make sense of what we don't really understand?

AI can explain its answers. So can we. But what if those explanations are just stories we tell to make sense of what we don't really understand?

Psychology

Beyond Open Access: Improving Quality in Research

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on May 19, 2025

A recent article argues for a path to improve scientific publishing. But are its suggestions reasonable?

A recent article argues for a path to improve scientific publishing. But are its suggestions reasonable?

Bias

The Danger of Activist-Driven Science

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on April 21, 2025

When science serves a cause, truth takes a back seat. This post explores how activism distorts research and why it matters.

When science serves a cause, truth takes a back seat. This post explores how activism distorts research and why it matters.

Artificial Intelligence

Are AI Outputs Rational or Not?

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on March 3, 2025

AI can generate creative ideas, but can it make rational decisions? This post explores AI's strengths, limitations, and the role of human oversight in decision-making.

AI can generate creative ideas, but can it make rational decisions? This post explores AI's strengths, limitations, and the role of human oversight in decision-making.

Artificial Intelligence

The Double-Edged Sword of Artificial Intelligence

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on February 10, 2025

As large language models become more advanced, it becomes harder to differentiate quality responses from artful bullsh*t.

As large language models become more advanced, it becomes harder to differentiate quality responses from artful bullsh*t.

Decision-Making

Are Your Beliefs Genuine or Bullsh*t?

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on January 6, 2025

We possess a variety of beliefs, but they aren't all the same. What differentiates them, and how genuine they are?

We possess a variety of beliefs, but they aren't all the same. What differentiates them, and how genuine they are?

Bias

Confirmation May Be the Root of Most Biases

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on December 2, 2024

Biases stem from fundamental beliefs and context. Learn how these beliefs shape reasoning, why debiasing fails, and what it takes to challenge them effectively.

Biases stem from fundamental beliefs and context. Learn how these beliefs shape reasoning, why debiasing fails, and what it takes to challenge them effectively.

Heuristics

Yes, It Really Does Hurt to Think

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on November 4, 2024

Be strategic about when you can settle for good enough.

Be strategic about when you can settle for good enough.

Artificial Intelligence

Integrating AI Into Work: Start-Ups May Have an Advantage

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on October 1, 2024

AI offers potential value for organizations. But might start-ups be in the best position to capitalize on this new technology?

AI offers potential value for organizations. But might start-ups be in the best position to capitalize on this new technology?

Bias

Why Science Needs Human Experience

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on September 2, 2024

Without human experience, there is no science. Acknowledging the interplay between the two is essential to benefitting from scientific evidence.

Without human experience, there is no science. Acknowledging the interplay between the two is essential to benefitting from scientific evidence.

Workplace Dynamics

Managing Demand for Remote Work: Shadow Policies in 2024

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on August 5, 2024

Many companies have instituted in-office requirements. But might managers and employees find workarounds to these?

Many companies have instituted in-office requirements. But might managers and employees find workarounds to these?

Decision-Making

Navigating the Landscape of Unintended Consequences

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on July 8, 2024

Many decisions we make come with unintended consequences. But some may be more knowable and avoidable than others.

Many decisions we make come with unintended consequences. But some may be more knowable and avoidable than others.