Why People Believe in Horoscopes

When have you last enjoyed a cheeky fortune cookie? No Chinese takeaway would be complete without it. And the little biscuit treat comes with a mighty filling: A hidden paper slip promises insights into the reader’s personality or even a forecast of their future. Many people—and I'm one of them—will read these messages with interest. However, what is the power of a mass-produced cookie wafer in telling an individual’s fortune?

Power in Vagueness

Chances are that the fortune cookie's prediction may be entertaining but altogether meaningless. Why is it then that people attribute meaning when it simply isn’t there? A look at typical cookie wisdom might hold some answers.

1. A pleasant surprise is waiting for you.
2. The harder you work, the luckier you get.
3. You understand how to have fun with others and to enjoy your solitude.

The three fortune cookie messages above all have one thing in common: They are suitably vague.

For example, while Message 1 promises a "pleasant surprise," it fails to specify both its nature and when to expect it. As a result, anything from an unexpected friend’s visit the next day to a lottery win several months down the line might qualify. This vagueness leaves plenty of room for reading personal meaning into the cookie’s predictions.

Additionally, Message 2 offers a general truth that might apply to anybody’s life, and Message 3 is "double-headed," stating two opposing characteristics or talents and thereby ensuring that every reader will find some truth in it. Upon closer inspection, it therefore isn’t surprising that so many people find meaningful interpretations within the generic snippets of "wisdom" provided by popular fortune cookies.

The Barnum Effect

The surprising power of fortune cookies is an example of the so-called Barnum effect, a psychological phenomenon describing people’s tendency to find personal meaning in generic personality assessments or predictions of their future. The effect was named by psychologists Snyder and Shenkel after P. T. Barnum, a historical figure you might remember from the hit 2017 movie "The Greatest Showman." Barnum rose to fame by building a hugely successful circus empire, whose broad offer ranged from aquariums over wax figures to opera performances, thus providing entertainment for every taste.

Psychology research suggests that the Barnum effect applies to all types of fortune-telling as well as personality tests, which give vague or generic descriptions of one’s character. Indeed, a number of factors are likely to further strengthen the Barnum effect.

1. Personalisation: Acceptance of a predicted fortune or personality assessment can be increased by simply stating that a message or statement is “for you.” The simple suggestion that a prediction is specific to the individual rather than the general public appears to make people believe it more.
2. Positivity: Research suggests that positive predictions of the future or positive descriptions of one’s personality traits are more readily accepted than negative ones. After all, people like to believe their future is looking bright!
3. Status of messenger: Studies show that it matters who delivers a prediction or personality assessment. People generally appear more trusting in messengers of higher status or reputation. For example, predictions by a well-known astrologer may be believed more readily compared with those of online horoscopes without a named author.
4. People’s personality: Some evidence suggests that people’s inherent personality traits determine their vulnerability to the Barnum effect. For example, people with an external locus of control or a higher need for approval from others may be more likely to accept vague personality assessments or predictions of their future.

Tackling the Barnum Effect

Do you enjoy taking online quizzes to find out which Disney character you resemble most? Ever read the horoscope pages of newspapers or magazines? And do you happen to pay a bit too much attention to the contents of the fortune cookies after a Chinese meal out? Anybody is susceptible to the Barnum effect, because it’s part of our human nature to read meaning into vague predictions and statements.

To minimise your vulnerability to bogus fortune tellers, try to recall the power of the Barnum effect and look out for any of the factors that might strengthen it. Is the message overly positive? Could you be unduly swayed by your perceptions of the messenger’s status? One way or another, it may be worth taking your next fortune cookie message with a pinch of salt.

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