Guess Again

None of us has the time to learn every detail about the state of the world. Still, readers of Bobby Duffy’s book, Why We’re Wrong About Nearly Everything, might be surprised by how far off our estimates can be. Duffy, a veteran of market research firm Ipsos and director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London, highlights a few of the factors that could help explain our views.

Teen Pregnancy

What percentage of females age 15 to 19 give birth each year?

Average Guess: 24%
Reality: 2.1% (2017)

Stories speak to humans in a way that statistics do not, and there’s evidence that negative information is particularly salient. Americans have seen plenty of dark and dramatic tales about the dangers of teen pregnancy in the 21st century. “Teen pregnancy was a much bigger issue 20 or so years ago,” Duffy says. “But people are not good at updating their views, particularly where you see slow, incremental improvements.”

Crime Rates

Is the murder rate higher, lower, or about the same as in 2000?

Guesses: higher (52% of respondents), same (26%), lower (13%)
Reality: lower

Crime headlines play to our instinct for vigilance and can distort a bigger, less negative picture. Erroneous comparisons of past and present threats may also be partly explained by “rosy retrospection,” the finding that people view some past events more positively over time. Public figures sometimes misrepresent safety risks, too—and seeing false statements repeatedly may make them seem more credible, research on the “illusory truth effect” suggests.

Sexual Orientation

What percentage of people say they believe homosexuality is morally unacceptable?

Average Guess: 42%
Reality: 37% (2016)

“What we think other people think is important,” Duffy says, “because it has an effect on our own views and behavior.” When Ipsos asked people in 35 countries to estimate general disapproval of homosexuality, guesses were too high in 27 countries. Duffy thinks this is partly a reflection of what psychologists call “pluralistic ignorance,” an inability to discern how common our relatively private views really are.

Statistics based on U.S. data. Source: Ipsos