Factors That Predict Divorce—and How to Prevent Them

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I have previously written about the strongest signs romance is over. But when it comes to tying the knot, couples who walk down the aisle together plan to stay together. Marriage is designed to make couples happy and healthy. Viewed as a covenant not a contract, partners are motivated to make marriage work. Thankfully, research reveals there are indeed ways they can be successful.

Divorce: Prediction Is Prevention

John Mordechai Gottman and Robert Wayne Levenson explored factors that predict whether a marriage will be successful or end in divorce.[i] They predicted divorce using longitudinal data, studying 21 couples out of 79 who divorced over a 14-year time period. They found one predictive factor was the quantity of “unregulated volatile positive and negative affect,” noting this factor predicts a short marriage for divorcing couples. They labeled a second factor “neutral affective style,” noting it predicts a longer marriage for divorcing couples.

Gottman and Levenson identify two high‐risk critical periods for divorce: the initial seven years of marriage—during which half of all divorces occur. Accordingly, they note this period is often characterized as “volatile and highly emotional.” They identify the second critical period for divorce as midlife, a time when most couples are raising young teenagers. They note some investigators have suggested that this time period is the lowest point of marital satisfaction.

Surviving Critical Periods

Gottman and Levenson found that couples who divorce earlier were initially expressive within their relationships, having elevated levels of anger and wife negativity, while couples who divorced later in the marriage scored higher at an earlier time period on having neutral affect. Although they define neutral affect as somewhat "positive" in marital conflict conversations, because it is usually linked with positive outcomes such as marital satisfaction, they observe that very high levels of neutral affect during conflict may cause dysfunction. Gottman and Levenson suggest the absence of conversational affect most predicts later divorcing, explaining that high levels of neutral affect reflect a marriage that is affectless and devitalized.

Gottman and Levenson note their data may reflect two dysfunctional adaptations to marital issues: dysregulation through increasing negativity, which is unpleasant but there is still “a fire,” and dysregulation through lack of affect. Although it is hard to remain in a marriage where there is intense conflict, the absence of affect will eventually adversely impact the marriage. They note this is corroborated by results from the California Divorce Mediation project, which found the most common reason reported for divorcing was “an increasing distance and isolation between partners, a decay of the marital friendship.” Gottman and Levenson also note their results are consistent with the suggestion that a key factor impacting marital dissatisfaction during midlife is alienation due to “long‐standing unexpressed marital disillusionment and disappointment,” which can be intensified by midlife crisis, as well as an unhappy partner and a rebellious teen.

Mending Marital Messaging

For all couples, the goal is to preserve marriage and avoid divorce. Gottman and Levenson propose potential solutions in marital therapy, suggesting different treatment interventions to address the two types of dysfunctional styles of affect regulation. Couples characterized by negativity and volatility could benefit by replacing the “culture of criticism" with a "culture of appreciation," assisting the couple to balance negative and positive affect, to self‐soothe, and regulate the intensity of their mutual affective life.

For couples living within an affectless marriage, therapists can encourage partners to express all types of affects surrounding marital conflict, focusing on rebuilding a marital friendship to end feelings of distance and isolation. An effective therapist can help couples establish emotional connection to replace emotional disengagement.

Marriages are ideally designed to survive and thrive, for better or for worse, in sickness and in health. Couples who recognize dysfunction sooner rather than later can seek help faster, to ensure their walk down the aisle prompts a walk into the sunset, every day of their lives till death do they part.