How to Resist Overthinking Decisions

Scientifically, overthinking is not a singular phenomenon. But because the experience is common to many people, we use an umbrella term to describe different mental patterns. In this post, you’ll learn to spot typical patterns you may fall into, and how you can not only resist those patterns but also make better decisions and feel more confident in them.

But thinking more usually improves decisions!

Much of the scientific literature on decision-making recommends taking more time and reviewing more data. When advising leaders, social scientists and business scholars alike recommend practices that slow the decision process and force a wider range of evidence to be considered [1,2]. In my own work developing people’s leadership, communication and influencing skills, my goal is to instill a pause before your automatic response, so you can respond in a manner that is more effective than your usual, default approach.

But thinking longer does not always improve outcomes and can cause emotional distress. So, when does thinking become overthinking: a repetitive loop that feels unpleasant and does not improve decision quality?

Overthinking is a common experience

Source: AI Image: ChatGPT / OpenAI

When we prolong the decision without improving it

Neuroscientists have proposed that our brains treat the effort of evaluating different options as a cost we pay in order to buy confidence [3]. As a result, we stop thinking once we feel confident enough. However, if you can’t reach the point of feeling confident enough – because you can’t verify the value of the options or distinguish between them – you may keep reviewing the same evidence. Your brain keeps “paying” in time and effort without gaining any reassurance.

Postponing the decision may itself dwindle your confidence. Computational modelling indicates that we use our decision-making time as a direct source of information about our confidence in that decision [4]. Thus, the longer we take to decide, the less confident and more uncomfortable we may feel, particularly when there is no new information available.

What form of overthinking do you experience?

Here are three common variants you might recognise in yourself:

1. Maximising: When you aim for the optimal outcome every time. People who exhaustively seek out the best possible option are generally less happy. Although maximisers may even achieve better outcomes, their arduous decision process is so psychologically taxing that it lowers satisfaction and increases stress. As a result, they tend to be less optimistic, more neurotic, and more likely to ruminate over past decisions [5].
2. Choice overload: When it's impossible to choose between options. The stress of choice overload is not simply a function of the number of options available. It comes from the difficulty of distinguishing between those options and assessing how attractive they are. The more you care about the outcome, the worse it feels [6].
3. Rumination: Focusing on your feelings instead of the problem. When struggling with a decision you might feel anxious or worried. You can do one of two things: 1) reflect on the situation to move forward, or 2) focus on the feeling. Rumination is the latter: a repetitive pattern of focus on the negative emotion, which is likely to worsen your mood [7] and can even lead to depression [8]. Rumination is more common in women but occurs in both genders, particularly in young to mid-adulthood [9].

How to resist the overthinking pattern and improve your decision process

A few simple but powerful steps can help a great deal.

• Recognise that you cannot fully control the future. An optimal decision using the best available evidence still cannot account for everything that might affect the outcome. This is hard to recognise because in hindsight we equate decision outcome with decision quality – but excellent decisions can bring bad results, and poor decisions sometimes lead to great outcomes. Factors we don’t control (context, timing, others’ choices) have a bigger role than we give them credit for. You cannot control the outcome; you can only control the decision.
• Control your maximising tendency by re-focusing it. A metanalysis of more than 47,000 people found that well-being is not negatively affected when maximisers aim to achieve the best decision process. The negative effects occur when the maximiser’s goal is the best outcome [10]. Unsurprisingly, the analysis found the highest reductions in well-being for maximisers focused on their careers and relationships, where outcomes always depend on factors we don’t control.
• Reduce choice overload by naming what matters most. Whether you are choosing between holiday locations or new career opportunities, your options rarely permit an apples-to-apples comparison. However, a significant factor in choice overload is uncertainty about the goal [6]. When you can’t determine which option is clearly the best, define your goal better. For example, if you can’t choose between Cancun, Casablanca, or Cape Town, first clarify your top goal for your week away, then evaluate which option fits it best. Choosing one thing always means choosing to not have other things. Accept your decision as the best you could do at the time.
• Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) techniques can break the rumination loop. CBT is a well-established approach that changes your thoughts in order to change your mood and your actions. CBT researchers treat rumination as a learned response that can be interrupted by shifting your focus from why you feel this way to how you can address the situation [11]. Your overthinking might include “why” themes such as, “Why am I no good at making decisions? Why do I always second-guess myself?” Break the rumination cycle by shifting to, “How can I make the best decision today? What is the first step?”.
• Reduce your fear of getting it wrong. CBT also enables people to reduce their worries about the future. The technique is called “de-catastrophising,” and the simplest version involves three steps:
  • State the worst outcome in concrete detail: What happens, to whom and when.
  • Estimate the percentage likelihood of this outcome (between 0% and 100%).
  • State how you could cope if the worst case actually occurred.

A field study found that it’s rare your worst fear comes true, but even if it does, you will likely cope better than you expected [12].

Many of our personal challenges are common patterns in human behaviour. They become easier to manage when we understand why they happen, and what has been shown to help.