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Soccer, or football, as it is referred to in most of the world, is commonly referred to as “the beautiful game” as it gives you a sense of joy, whether you’re playing it on beautiful green fields just outside London, beaches of Rio de Janeiro, streets and alley ways of Rome and Paris or anywhere else in the world.
When played on professional level, as with many other team sports, it requires some of the most psychologically-minded players. Indeed, big games are won or lost based on team’s individual and collective mental resilience. With this in mind let us evaluate both Croatia and France both individually and as teams before this Sunday’s World Cup Final.
In the interest of full disclosure let me say that as a cultural, historical, and political being I, as anyone else, am vulnerable to bias. However, I will try to control for that bias by keeping things as transparent as possible so that readers can make informed decision. Specifically, because I hail from time and place (i.e., war in Former Yugoslavia/Bosnia and Herzegovina) that featured many atrocities against civilians, to me most significantly in my hometown of Mostar, I had to grapple with the idea of what it would mean if Croatia was to win the World Cup (in the same way that I would if Serbia were in the Final). Ultimately, I have decided that, as someone who has many friends and family members who are Serbs and Croats, and as someone who recognizes that majority of people mean well regardless of what country they come from, there is no other alternative but recognize Croatian deservedness to win the World Cup to the same extent as France. Regardless of complex political history of the Balkan region or how some extreme fans may use their victory, the Croatian team, a cohesive unit of world – class footballers, as most other athletes, represent the best of values: friendship, team work, dedication, hard work and as such are to be congratulated, just as the French team, on reaching the World Cup Final. In sum, I hope that the analysis that follows is as fair and as bias-free as possible.
As teams, Croatia and France are different, from strictly psychological perspective. Croatia are a team that seems to thrive on adversity, having played best after starting poor and trailing early on, and having gone to extra time in their last three matches, two of which they won on penalty kicks. This maybe symbolic of the teams’ players, many of whom had to overcome adversity of wartime childhood, immigration and economic instability. For many of Croatia’s players, this resilience is their major strength. France, on the other hand, seem calm, collected and professional in most of their matches, though they too overcame deficit against Argentina, demonstrating that they can deal with adversity. If France and Croatia were two heavyweight boxers I’d say that France is a calm, soft spoken, professional who relies on a steady jab that overwhelms opponents and wins matches on points. Croatia too has moments of calmness and professionalism, but tends to take risks that end it on canvas early on in the fight, seemingly motivated by anger of the blow taken as they work on the comeback. Thus far, all of Croatia’s comebacks have been successful. This is one quality of the Croatian team that French team cannot fall asleep on – it takes a lot more than scoring one goal against this team to win.
If football teams are brains then their midfield players are their prefrontal cortex – making decisions, solving problems, and, perhaps most importantly, controlling stress response. For France that player is N’Golo Kanté, and for Croatia it is Luka Modrić. Both players’ main objective is to control the game by keeping the possession for as long as possible (i.e., the longer your team keeps the possession of the ball – usually around the middle of the pitch – the less you have to play defense as there are less opportunities for the opposing team to score a goal, while you can always stay ready for an instant attack with quick connecting passes forward). Kanté’s role in the midfield is more defensive compared to Modrić who tends to be more focused on offense. Both of these players are considered to be among the best in the world in their respective positions. Kanté, by his very nature of focusing on defense, keeps his team calm and collected by breaking up passes and plays before they become dangerous. Modrić, by pushing forward, makes Croatia a more offensively minded team, which can make it vulnerable to counter attacks. I give a very slight edge to France in the middle of the park – they seem to have a calming presence that makes defending a calm and controlled professional exercise rather than a confused and often disorganized practice that we witnessed in England’s semi-final performance. To use a boxer analogy, Croatia will find it hard to get back into the match as they did in previous two matches, especially if they keep running into a defensive “jab” of France that does just enough to keep the distance and frustrate the opponent, including opponent as formidable as Belgium.
This game seems primed to be a close one as its teams are led by two superb tacticians. Croatia, as in previous games, will improve its chances of winning if they can push the game into the extra time and penalty shootouts. Otherwise, Croatia will need to score first if they want to win this game – France has a level of calming and professional presence on defensive end of the pitch that England simply lacked. What I predict will happen is that Croatia’s initial attack will eventually lead to one of France’s successful counter attacks which will give France a 1-0 lead. This will force Croatia to continue attacking in a quest for a tie. This quest, however, will lead to another goal by France, which will give France a 2-0 lead. At this point Croatia will either stop going forward as much and the match will end with a 2-0 score for France, or Croatia’s “never quit” attitude may lead to more push forward exposing it to a 3-0 loss. Don’t get me wrong – Croatia’s team have more potent overall offensive threats than France do (with the exception of 19 y.o. prodigy Mbappé who scored two goals against Argentina), but not more so than Belgium’s, which France did not have problems stopping and controlling.
While France are not the most offensively prolific team they tend to find ways to score, and perhaps their seemingly often impenetrable defense gives them confidence to push forward and to create just enough opportunities to score needed goals. These teams have somewhat different but almost equal “psychological” profiles. In the end, however, France will likely walk away with a 2-0 win. Congratulations to both Croatia and France!
