Probability as a Number, Probability as a Personality Test

Probability is the branch of mathematics that measures the likelihood of an event occurring. In this entry, we examine how you can use probability statistics to free or freeze yourself.

Probability Is a Number

One way of looking at probability is as an unemotional predictive index. You look down at your mobile device in the morning and read about the probability of snow during the day. That number governs your shoe selection and perhaps the route you will take to work. Your reaction to that number reveals your level of risk-taking when faced with uncertainty. In that sense, your reaction to that number becomes a demonstration of your personality.

Probability Is a Projective Test

According to the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, data collected in 2025 show that the probability of a new business failing within five years is 49.4 percent. That is the statistic. Does that number frighten you or excite you?

Sanjay Manandhar is an MIT-educated engineer, an entrepreneur, and an author. His 2026 book The Why Not Advantage is an exploration of probability statistics as a projective test about yourself. He writes, “Low probability odds may be statistically valid for a population or large sample. But do those odds apply to you? I wrote this book to give you the same permission I gave myself: The permission to ask, ‘Why not?’”

Probability is not an external truth. It is a number that tells you what has happened to others in the past. When you use that number to justify inaction, you reveal yourself. If you have an entrepreneurial framework, however, you can interpret the same number differently. As Mr. Manandhar states, “When the world told me ‘unlikely,’ I heard ‘possible.’”

Helen Greiner’s Career

Mr. Manandhar describes the career of his fellow MIT classmate Helen Greiner. When Ms. Greiner graduated from MIT in 1989, only 10 percent of her graduating class were female. The vast majority of 1989 MIT graduates wanted to begin careers with well-known companies that offered good salaries, excellent training, and immediate professional respect.

Helen Greiner, on the other hand, decided to take an “improbable” route. She began her career by turning science fiction into reality: Making robots. She and two colleagues founded IRobot. She was its President for 18 years. Since 2020, Ms. Greiner has been CEO and Chair of the robot-gardening company Tertill.

Probability as Permission

Probability statistics for an entrepreneur can indeed be interpreted as “possible.” For others, probability can be interpreted as “permission.” Binary thinking refers to a tendency to view things as black/white, 0/1, good/bad, and more. According to Sabrina Zohar, nearly all of us engage in binary thinking during the year. The tendency towards binary thinking increases with stress and sleep deprivation (2025).

For example, “I’m scheduled to be a passenger on a commercial airline going from New York City to Los Angeles. My plane could crash. I could die.”

The above statement is factually correct. Framing the issue in a binary way (could versus could not) makes fear a natural consequence.

The same issue, however, can be reframed as a probability question. Use an Artificial Intelligence tool to ask, “What is the probability of a commercial airline crashing on the New York City to Los Angeles route?” Below is Gemini’s response: “0.000001 percent, making it one of the safest heavily traveled corridors in the world.”

Summary and Conclusions:

Probability statistics are numbers based on large samples of past events. The numbers are neutral. It is the interaction between these numbers and your cognitive framework that makes the difference. When looking at probability statistics, ask yourself if you are viewing the numbers as permission to act or justification to avoid action.