When This Rogue Waves Hits, Will You Survive?

A rogue wave is a statistically rare 80-plus-foot wall of water that can sink a ship in seconds. It is caused by a collision of waves coming together at different angles. Jonathan Brill, author of Rogue Waves: future proof your business to survive and profit from radical change (2021) and former Global Futurist and Research Director at Hewlett Packard, makes the case that economic and technology waves are colliding to make rogue waves more common.

The dilemma for business leaders is that owners like consistent growth and financial predictability but surviving rogue waves requires corporate agility. How do you balance these competing forces? The dilemma for managing your career is you may prefer job consistency, financial predictability, and clear paths for climbing the corporate ladder.

How do you survive rogue waves in your career? There are two waves colliding at you.

Wave #1: Long Middle Age

Age 65 used to be a time when people would retire and spend their "golden years" playing golf and canasta. Perhaps your parents and grandparents retired this way. Consider the following:

Bob Dylan released a new album at age 79.

Betty White did a voice-over for the new Disney release of “Toy Story” at age 98.

At age 85, actress Sophia Loren starred in an Italian movie called “The Life Ahead.”

Bruce Springfield, age 71, is opening on Broadway with a one-person show.

People in the developed world are living longer, staying healthy longer, and accomplishing things later in life. For example, the fraction of over 85s in the United States classified as disabled dropped by 33% between 1982 and 2005. The share of individuals of this age who are institutionalized fell nearly by 50%. (Brooks, 2021).

In 1900, life expectancy in the United States was 47 years. Today it is 78. The best way to grasp the implication is to visualize middle age now extended to your mid 70s.

Wave #2: Short Job Tenure

Jonathan Brill describes three trends leading to a reduction in career stability/predictability. (1) 30% of mid-level jobs could be eliminated by the mid-2030s thanks to the increasing use of Artificial Intelligence. (2) The center of economic and political gravity is moving away from the United States and Europe. By 2035, 2.1 billion people in China will be earning $35,000 per year or more and 87% of the world’s economic growth will be in Asia. (3) More innovation, faster product life cycles, and faster M&As. (2021).

The foundation of retirement savings is based on a mid-twentieth century model of slow and consistent contributions funded by corporations, employees, and the federal government. Short job tenure explodes that assumption.

Wave #1 and Wave #2 each are significant. But these two waves are colliding. The result is a rogue wave that can demolish your career. Below are three suggestions for survival.

It’s Not Personal

As you approach age 60, do you have enough retirement savings to support yourself and your partner until the age of 90? If your answer is negative, do not think of yourself as having failed. That feeling may be the new normal. Doing some “retirement job” for cash flow may be the norm.

The word “retirement” will no longer mean the absence of work. It may include work but with more flexibility.

Design an Education Program

Be suspicious of job candidates who focus on accomplishments over the last ten years. The best predictor of future success may be openness to future change.

For professionals approaching age 50, this means putting together a plan for continuing education.Institutions of higher education are responding to this trend with a proliferation of certification programs. Be strategic about how you spend your time and money.

If you plan to remain within your current corporate structure, taking courses on strategy and policy may help position you for higher-level jobs, If your future is going to be providing operations-focused consulting, then you want to be up to date in how to employ the newest technology.

We recommend your resume show you as someone who is constantly learning things.

Career Essential Reads

Why Some Employee Perks Tear Teams Apart

The Mental Load: The Second Job Women Do at Work

Change Your Negative Attitude About 1099 Work

W2 refers to a federal IRS tax form for full-time employees. 1099 refers to a tax form for project-based talent like interim professionals.

The wrong question to ask us as career consultants is, “SHOULD I go into consulting?” The correct question is, “WHEN I go into consulting will I make enough money?” Start learning the tools of the 1099 trade before you need to use those tools.

Summary

Rogue waves can overwhelm companies and individuals. We predict a rogue wave for Psychology Today readers based on the collision of two trends (1) longer middle age and (2) short job tenure. We have suggested three approaches to help you thrive when the wave hits.