Perfectly Confident

Optimism

Are Economic Forecasts Overconfident?

Don A. Moore Ph.D. on February 8, 2021

If economic forecasts are optimistic, they may have misled our fiscal and monetary policies. Are they?

If economic forecasts are optimistic, they may have misled our fiscal and monetary policies. Are they?

Confidence

You Can Handle the Truth: How Confident Should You Be?

Don A. Moore Ph.D. on August 17, 2020

Overconfidence and underconfidence are both errors in thinking.

Overconfidence and underconfidence are both errors in thinking.

Career

Sticking With It

Don A. Moore Ph.D. on May 17, 2020

Parents, coaches, and teachers encourage persistence. How persistent should you be?

Parents, coaches, and teachers encourage persistence. How persistent should you be?

Sport and Competition

Are You at Risk of Misplacing Yourself?

Don A. Moore Ph.D. on April 30, 2020

We get ourselves into trouble by falsely believing we are better than others. Or falsely believing we're worse. Here's what to do instead.

We get ourselves into trouble by falsely believing we are better than others. Or falsely believing we're worse. Here's what to do instead.

Confidence

The False Prophet of Common Sense

Don A. Moore Ph.D. on February 25, 2020

Why it's easy to be overconfident in our intuitions.

Why it's easy to be overconfident in our intuitions.

Consumer Behavior

Illusions of Control

Don A. Moore Ph.D. on July 18, 2018

We tend to overestimate control when we have very little of it, but underestimate control when we have a lot of it.

We tend to overestimate control when we have very little of it, but underestimate control when we have a lot of it.

Shyness

Why You Should Be Worried About Underconfidence

Don A. Moore Ph.D. on June 7, 2018

Underconfidence denies us the successes we would have enjoyed had we only dared to try.

Underconfidence denies us the successes we would have enjoyed had we only dared to try.

Optimism

Optimism and Nuclear War

Don A. Moore Ph.D. on March 7, 2018

We choose our leaders in part because of their confidence and their optimism. We should worry what that might get us.

We choose our leaders in part because of their confidence and their optimism. We should worry what that might get us.

Intelligence

Who Are You Trying to Fool?

Don A. Moore Ph.D. on February 8, 2018

Everybody can believe that he or she is the best driver in the world and be correct — if everybody gets their own definition of what good driving means.

Everybody can believe that he or she is the best driver in the world and be correct — if everybody gets their own definition of what good driving means.

Confidence

Overconfidence

Don A. Moore Ph.D. on January 22, 2018

We are all vulnerable to it.

We are all vulnerable to it.