The ‘Havana Syndrome’ Payout: When the Nocebo Effect Wins the Lottery

The headlines are dramatic: The U.S. government is paying compensation to its employees and their dependents who were believed to have been the victims of a mysterious directed-energy weapon. The alleged attacks began in Cuba in 2016, hence the term "Havana syndrome."

The payments are happening because Congress passed the Havana Act of 2021 to compensate government employees and their dependents who were believed to have experienced health problems from a covert weapon wielded by a foreign power. Health problems attributed to these anomalous health incidents later spread to more than 1,500 employees. However, in 2023, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), which oversees America’s spy agencies, concluded that foreign adversary attacks were “highly unlikely” and that the symptoms were almost certainly the result of pre-existing conditions and anxiety disorders that were erroneously lumped under a single label. Psychologists have also pointed to another primary mechanism: the nocebo effect, the opposite of the more well-known placebo effect. Put simply, if people believe something can make them sick, they can actually exhibit symptoms.

Despite this conclusion, the Havana Syndrome Act was never rescinded.

More recently, in June 2026, the ODNI changed its assessment stance. This shift was not driven by some new scientific revelation or study but by political disagreement within the administration of President Donald Trump. But while the political climate has shifted, the robust science behind the earlier findings has not changed. From a psychological perspective, this highlights how political framing can breathe new life into a social contagion. In understanding possible reasoning behind the change, the Trump administration is looking for reasons to intervene in Cuba, as it has publicly stated it wants regime change.

These events raise an obvious question: Why was the bipartisan law for compensation not amended once the intelligence community concluded "Havana syndrome" was an iatrogenic (physician-created or context-driven) condition? Political pressure. Importantly, the law did not require perceived victims to prove that they had been attacked.

A History of Psychogenic Compensation

We need to keep the claims around Havana syndrome in perspective. Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, governments and large employers gave out compensation to their workers for conditions that were later found to have been psychogenic or socially constructed. Notable examples include railway spine, telegraphist’s cramp, and, more recently, repetition strain. Only later were these conditions found to have been part of a much larger pattern.

There are people today who swear they are getting sick from the invisible waves emitted by mobile phones, wi-fi, and 5G towers. While there is no concrete evidence to support these beliefs, it is important to acknowledge that their symptoms can be real. Just like Havana syndrome, once people hear stories that a particular new technology or threat may be affecting their health, social contagion can take over. In psychology, this is known as the nocebo effect: the opposite of the placebo effect. In short, if you are told that something is making you sick, and you believe it, your nervous system can generate genuine symptoms that are consistent with the perceived exposure. This is a hallmark of mass psychogenic illness, where outbreaks typically mimic the event scenario. For instance, eye irritation and breathing problems are common responses to the presence of an unusual but harmless odor that is assumed to be toxic, while stomach pain and vomiting are common in cases involving suspected food poisoning.

Beyond a lack of physical evidence, another issue is the long list of ambiguous symptoms attributed to it. These include headache, nausea, dizziness, difficulty concentrating, memory issues, fatigue, disorientation, forgetfulness, confusion, tinnitus, insomnia, head pressure, ear pain, balance problems, and depression. Most people would experience one or more of these symptoms in any given week. While brain damage and white matter tract changes were originally feared, subsequent neuroimaging studies showed this not to be the case.

When trying to understand the Havana syndrome saga, we should be mindful of the adage, “Speak of the devil, and he is bound to appear.” This episode serves as a powerful example of the contagious power of belief, and why we should be cautious when politics overshadows science.