Bad Humans! 2017 Sees Record Increase in Carbon Emissions

After three years of minimal to zero change in total atmospheric CO2, carbon emissions for 2017 are on track to rise 2% to an historic high. This increase broke another record as the fastest ever in one year.

One of the lessons from this year’s record growth in carbon dioxide emissions is that past trends don’t necessarily predict future outcomes. This year’s change in the natural carbon cycle was unexpected, which poses a problem for scientists waiting to verify that their evidence confirms consistent trends—for many complicated reasons, it can take ten or more years to explain emission patterns with certainty.

Scientists believe this year’s spike was a climatic response to the 2015-16 El Niño. Weather events like El Niño can intensify droughts, which weaken the ability of ecosystems and organisms to absorb and filter atmospheric carbon. And if the oceans and land cannot do their job of recycling the carbon, the planet warms, which causes El Niño events to become more frequent. Lower water levels can also shift energy production from hydroelectric to more harmful forms.

A doubting reader might ask whether such naturally-occurring interventions in the carbon cycle let humans off the hook for global warming. Well, no. And while it might be tempting to interpret the past few years of low CO2 emissions as a sign that we are on the right track to save the planet from ourselves, we need to remember that global warming is a lengthy and slow process. The growing frequency of disruptive weather events like El Niño is the result of 150 years of accumulated greenhouse gases linked to atmospheric warming.

As we argued in a previous column, this ecological disaster will outlast human life unless we can develop a new politics that is synchronized to the reality of global warming and the timetable it is putting in place. The key elements of this politics involve variable rates of collective action—we must hasten the conversion to a sustainable economy, but we must also decelerate consumption.

The conversion of the economy thus far has been ineffectual. Although activists and scientists are trying to reduce them, emissions have remained relatively stable. The reasons revolve around our stubborn refusal to move wholeheartedly towards sustainability: we haven’t reached the peak of already-planned industrial growth or fossil-fuel consumption; 21 countries with growing economies have slowed carbon emissions but haven’t eliminated their causes; toxic clouds of industrial pollution shroud developing countries like India and China; and climate-change doubters and deniers continue to pollute the minds of political leaders.

To accelerate the conversion of the economy, we could rush low-carbon technologies into production. We have many other tools at our disposal. We can fast-track the shift to alternative energy, which is becoming cheap to produce and deploy. We have sustainable land-use models that can be quickly approved, implemented, and enforced to end ecologically-destructive practices. High-consumption countries could move faster to regulate trade in goods that embody high levels of carbon-based energy from importing countries.

There are still problems to overcome, mostly because the conversion we’re talking about puts information and communication technologies (ICT) at the center of the new economy. Unprecedented amounts of data will be produced to support the digitalization of industry and the deepening consumer dependence on the internet and mobile networks. This will cause an explosion of demand for data-storage centers and other electricity-hungry network services, which, according to a recent study, could mean that ICTs contribute 14% of total emissions by 2040, effectively cancelling the environmental benefits of a greener economic system. The risk of such an energy-rebound effect needs to be urgently addressed.

Green economics can offer means to achieve prosperity without burning up the planet. But their quick realization must be synchronized with a corresponding slow-down in demand for consumer goods. To achieve that, we need to embark on a massive, perhaps painful, makeover of our value system.

Currently, we live in a society of fast fashion and product envy, where a frenzy to acquire the latest in technology, clothing, and other consumer products is stoked by relentless commercial propaganda that links happiness to a never-ending accumulation of stuff. The quickening pace of product turnover not only fills retailers’ shelves and websites with a continual array of new commodities; it also saturates the waste stream with the outdated and unwanted rejects, many of which end up in landfills to further pollute the planet’s ecosystems.

And if happiness is dependent on the symbolic value we gain from owning more and more things, the odds are against governments and other institutions being able to shrink consumption. This is particularly worrisome in America. People would have to be convinced that they weren’t losing a valued part of their lives but were gaining time lost to consumption that they could devote to more varied, easier, and attractive alternatives. There will always be a place for the joys of shopping—just not the ubiquitous and all-time-consuming kind it is now.

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The global situation makes it increasingly important for scientists to have a more prominent voice in our societies in order to fast-track green economies and promote sustainable cultural values. We rely on them to marshal the evidence at their disposal to convince governments, the media, and everybody on the planet that a herculean effort is needed to reduce emissions, and do it quickly, as we slow down and discover the value of time we gain from abandoning consumerism. Happy holidays everyone!