There are many temptations to organize our life around the experience of earlier trauma. But that may short-change the future—which starts by our envisioning something better.
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Learning the right lessons from life
Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D.
Not all failures are equal.
To be sustainable, politeness needs to be used wisely by decision-makers and appreciated by recipients.
Timelag sensitivity is about correctly estimating and recognizing the time it would take for certain causes to show their effects.
Presenters of ideas tend to gain more from anecdotes than the decision-makers who apply those ideas.
Randomness can generate easily detectable patterns. Differentiating between illusory and causal patterns is essentially making decisions with the right expectations.
For our consequential decisions, we sadly can’t really behave as if we’re on a tennis court.
We would all be exceptional decision makers if we could somehow observe counterfactuals. Given that we can’t, what can we do instead?
Have you ever been conned or scammed? Chances are everybody has to some degree. Acknowledging one’s vulnerability might lead to wiser decisions.
Do-it-yourself algorithms can challenge and enhance our intuition, especially when the situation is complicated and outside influencers can affect our decisions.
A major challenge in business (and life) is knowing how to prioritize decisions—especially during moments of crisis.
More information is better for decision making... ideally. But can it also make things worse?
Self-fulfilling prophecies can lead us to learn the wrong lessons from experience.
What we learn from experience becomes efficient and durable. But it also creates a disadvantage. We can struggle to adapt to changing circumstances.
In life, what we observe shapes what we know, even when it contains irrelevant details that lead to misperceptions and illusions.
When it comes to experience, out of sight easily and convincingly becomes out of mind.
Kind vs. wicked experience: Learning the right lessons to improve decisions.
By investing in systematically imagining -the outcomes of disasters in the days where there are none, we can do a better job of managing our attention when they inevitably strike.
Snap judgments are based on our experience. What if, however, that experience is not reliable for the decision we are trying to make?
What should we do when intuition clashes with analysis in an important decision? Stick with analysis? Go with intuition? Here's how to decide.
While it often serves us well and guides us in our daily decisions, experience may lead us astray when we face rare disasters with dire consequences.
Impressive Interview: What advice to give to a job candidate?
Most forecasters have poor track records. Why is there still a demand for predictions?
A simple trick to remind ourselves of a future habit.
Can we learn from the experience and expertise of a physician and an astrologer in a way that is both reasonable and useful for the audience?
Could there be threats out there against which all humanity can unite and actually stand a good chance?
Unexpected insights we can learn from the ribbons that we use everyday to keep our feet in our shoes.
How often do you give advice to others? Are you a good advisor? How do you know?
How can some of those who harass others stay under the radar for such a long time? What is the appropriate response to these cases? What could prevent them in the first place?
If J. K. Rowling got rejected, so will you.
Chief Justice Roberts' speech highlights the power of personal experience.
Emre Soyer, Ph.D., is a behavioral scientist at Istanbul’s Ozyegin University and INSEAD. Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D., is a cognitive psychologist and emeritus professor at Barcelona’s Pompeu Fabra University.