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We've all been accused of it. I'm a Toronto Blue Jays fan, so I'm accused of it on a regular basis: "Ah, that's just wishful thinking." Still, I hold out hope that one day the pennant will again be ours . . .
A recent study documented the robust presence of wishful thinking. People's preferences for either McCain or Obama in the 2008 election appeared to drive expectations about the outcome of the election.
It got me to thinking: What's the good of wishful thinking? There must be some good to it, right? Think of those McCain supporters in the last days of the election. What were they gaining by maintaining a strong belief that McCain would win?
In this case, I think, there was nothing to lose and everything to gain. From the perspective of McCain supporters, forming an opposite expectation would only be depressing. Deciding to expect Obama to win would feel almost defeatist. Also, what if their gloom about the election encouraged others not to vote for McCain? There's something noble in holding out to the end, always making sure that your candidate has the best chance possible. Plus, how great would they have felt had McCain won? Certainly, there are upsets in politics. If McCain had won, they would have felt vindicated in their beliefs and they could authentically report that they knew it all along.
There is a downside, of course. The people who really believed that McCain was going to win were rather bummed out after election day. I'm reminded of the story about Michael Moore taking to his bed for a number of days after "W" won his second election.
That disappointment, though, is fleeting. Ask the McCain folks who participated in that study about how they're doing now. They're probably fine. They might even be looking forward to seeing their party do well in the upcoming mid-term elections. Heck, some of them might even be looking forward to 2012!
What's the real cost, then? The real cost, if not danger, I think, has to do with being out of touch with reality. It has to do with not having the mental discipline to see what's really going on versus what one would like to happen. People who can set their preferences aside, and get a good read on what's actually happening, often have the upper hand methinks. For example, they might see opportunities that wishful thinkers miss. Think of a Wall Street trader who saw the tech stock crash coming. That now-extremely-rich-person must have made a mint by betting on the downturn.
Wishful thinking, I think, is something that all of us do. So, we'll suffer its consequences from time to time. I hope that my analysis, though, points to the importance of weighing the value of the fantasy against the time when it is not realized. If the cost is too high, get out!
For more writing by yours truly, visit me at My Bad Habits. I am also on Twitter.
