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Decision-Making

How Successful Leaders Harness the Power of the Unexpected

Regular reflection on surprises can reveal hidden opportunities.

Key points

  • Letting go of the illusion of control frees us to handle uncertainty better.
  • Successful leaders prioritize clarity of values and direction over rigid certainty.
  • Excellence and perfection are not the same. Often, excellence emerges from imperfection.

In a world where unexpected events have become a constant, it’s essential to let go of the illusion that we can control everything. This illusion not only costs money, opportunities, and trust but also often leaves us unprepared for unforeseen challenges.

Recent research indicates that successful leaders prioritize clarity over certainty. Instead of pretending to know everything and maintaining complete control over the future, they focus on clarifying their priorities, values, and ideas. This sense of direction, rather than rigid control, allows for adaptability and informed decision-making as new information emerges.

Consider the example of Post-it Notes: In the 1970s, 3M scientist Spencer Silver was attempting to develop a strong adhesive, but instead created one that was surprisingly weak. Rather than seeing it as a failure, he realized its potential for temporary stickiness. His colleague, Art Fry, later used it to mark pages in his hymnbook, leading to the invention of Post-it Notes. This serendipitous discovery turned a "failed" adhesive into a globally useful product, revolutionizing how we organize and communicate. Had they strictly adhered to their initial plans, this innovative solution—an unexpected positive outcome from human action—might never have emerged.

Numerous innovations and inventions—from Viagra and penicillin to the COVID-19 vaccine—owe their existence to such serendipity. Similarly, we often find the best ideas through unanticipated paths, whether in love, a new job, or a new home. However, if we cling to the belief that we can plan everything and focus solely on strict adherence to plans and avoiding risks, we miss out on these unforeseen opportunities.

Planning is important. But we need to stop viewing the unpredictable as an enemy (“risk management”) and recognize it as a potential source of new ideas and insights. But how can we cultivate this readiness for the unexpected?

One effective strategy is to integrate regular reflective exercises into our meetings: asking, “What has surprised us recently?” Leaders can foster psychological safety by openly discussing mistakes and encouraging a culture of learning and experimentation. This environment enables employees to develop creative solutions without fear of negative repercussions.

Second, reframe decisions away from “What is the risk of doing this?” to “What is the risk of not doing this?” Understanding that avoiding new paths can often be more perilous than exploring them can lead to better decisions—and fewer regrets on our deathbed.

Third, we need to internalize that excellence and perfection are two different things. Leaders must set the right priorities for this. For example, in a meeting, emphasize that excellent products often start with a vague idea that is not yet perfect.

Thus, it’s all about relinquishing the illusion of control and embracing clarity over certainty. By viewing unexpected events not only as the enemy that destroys our plans but also as potential sources of joy and insight, we can develop our muscle for the unexpected.

References

Busch, C. 2020. The Serendipity Mindset. New York: Penguin Random House.

Busch, C. 2024. Towards a Theory of Serendipity. Journal of Management Studies, 61(3): 1110–1151.

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