Welcome to the millennium

It's January 1, 2000. The world has just celebrated the greatest
New Year'sEve party in recorded history. Even cultures that follow
different calendars are revelling in the streets. But unlike New Year's
parties past, nobody has waited until December 31 to hit the streets. The
children has bee going full blast since Christmas; the world has been
psyching itself up for this blowout since 1995, when the symptoms of
Millennium Fever were first evident.

For several years religious fanatics and prophets of doom have been
preaching the end of the world. And when you look at the events going on
around you on New Year's Day, 2000--civil war in Russia, student revolts
in the United States, the threat of nuclear terrorism--there's good
reason for fear. But Armageddon hasn't happened. The world hasn't gone up
in flames.

In fact, there's a strange elation threading through the chaos and
disruption. Though the United States and the rest of the world will be
going through increasingly troubled times in the immediate future, the
first signs of the scientific, artistic, and spiritual renaissance that
will shape this new millennium are unmistakable. Those who anticipate and
act on the changes taking place will be able to prosper both materially
and spiritually. Here are a few trends that will dramatically alter our
lives in the coming millennium.

Living the Simple Life

Voluntary simplicity, once merely a counterculture ideal, will
finally become a reality in the twenty-first century. Simplicity doesn't
mean deprivation. Rather, it's old-fashioned Yankee frugality,
rediscovered and redesigned for the modern age. Moderation,
self-discipline, and spiritual growth will be the personal goals of the
future, not material accumulation. As the old saying goes: Use it up,
wear it out, make it do, do without. If you don't really need it, it's a
luxury. Not that there's anything wrong with luxuries; it's just that we
won't confuse them with necessities.

In the 1960s, these ideas and goals seemed quaint and cute. In the
new century, however, as cost-cutting corporations continue to lay off
vast numbers of workers, many people will have to drastically scale back
their lifestyles to survive. Call it involuntary simplicity. But
downsizing--currently perceived by the government and the media as a
grave problem, and by the downsized as a catastrophe--will prove to be a
blessing in disguise in the new millennium. Forced into freedom, millions
of us will find ways to take control of our lives and do what we've
always wanted to do: change careers, start companies of our own, or
become work-at-home freelancers. In 1996, 12 percent of downsized workers
started their own businesses, double the rate of 1993.

One major outgrowth of the voluntary simplicity movement will be
our desire to grow as much of our own food as possible. But how many
people will be able to do this when relatively few Americans live in
rural areas where there's room for the type of extensive garden needed to
produce a substantial portion of the year's food?

Somewhere around the year 2000, the revelation--and
revolution--will come. The lawn! Lawns are everywhere: millions of
costly, intensively cared for suburban lawns have been doing nothing but
growing grass. But a lawn that's turned into a vegetable patch can
produce fresh food.

The trend to convert lawns into gardens will have a significant
impact not only on the way we eat but also on how we live and feel. It
will be one of the keys to living better for less. Billions of dollars
formerly spent on lawn care will either be saved or re-deployed into
producing fresh food. The American lawn won't disappear entirely, of
course. Kids will always romp on them, barbecues will still be held on
them. But a significant portion of the nation's arable lawn will be
revamped for food production. Just two mature standard fruit trees
produce 250 pounds of fruit a year. With millions of downsized or
underemployed people struggling to make ends meet, a thousand saved here
and a thousand saved there will make a real difference. Even university
and corporate campus lawns will be transformed into edible landscapes,
providing students and employees with practical, enjoyable, and
therapeutic respite from study or work.

Millennium Family Values

Practicing voluntary simplicity, of course, will require a
redistribution of our priorities, a rethinking of how we spend our days.
Most of us will no longer make the false distinction we used to between
"quality" time and the rest of the day All time will be quality time
(except for filling out tax forms and that sort of thing). After all, it
takes time to cook a good meal, to play with the kids, to sew a ripped
skirt that you once would have thrown away

With more of us working and spending our free time at home, it's
easy to imagine the model twenty-first-century family as Ozzie and
Harriet with laptops. But the Nelson family and their real-life
counterparts were the products of the 1950s, a time when unparalleled
American prosperity allowed the traditional extended family to fragment.
In the new millennium, the multigenerational extended family will come
together.

Instead of being banished to nursing homes or retirement
communities, large numbers of retirees--aging, often ailing, unable to
care for themselves or to afford quality care--will move in with their
adult children. We'll also see perfectly healthy widowed and divorced
parents setting up house alongside their kids--ideally with separate
entrances and kitchens to preserve some of the privacy to which we've
become accustomed. Family households will sometimes extend to four
generations when married or unmarried Generation Xers move back home with
their young kids.

Whatever the drawbacks of multigenerational families living
together, there will be substantial benefits, too. Healthy grandparents
will pull their weight as baby-sitters. This trend is already strong: In
1994, 44 percent of grandparents spent an average of 650 hours--the
equivalent of 81 eight-hour days--taking care of their grandchildren. But
more than babysitters, grandparents will also function as home educators.
They'll be the modern equivalent of tribal elders who were valued and
revered in traditional hunter-gatherer societies for their wisdom and
experience.

Back to the Boardinghouse

The meaning of the word "family" will also broaden beyond that of
blood relationships during the twenty-first century. It will come to mean
groups of interdependent people--relatives, friends, and neighbors--who
share values, goals, responsibilities, and a long-term commitment to one
another and their communities. A number of creative (and sometimes
desperate) solutions will be found for a wide spectrum of new economic
and social challenges.

For example, the 1930s boardinghouse will return in an upgraded
version that's designed to meet the needs of modern-day low-income single
people. By the year 2010, 31 million people will be living alone. But as
disposable incomes continue to fall and the job market tightens, workers
of every age will be unable to afford the rents on even studio
apartments. While two can live more cheaply than one, ten can live
substantially cheaper than two, so boardinghouses will reemerge. They'll
provide home-cooked communal meals and a congenial familylike atmosphere,
becoming social oases in an increasingly impersonal world.

If the revival of boardinghouses represents an effective defensive
tactic against economic changes, "cohousing" will be an offensive
long-term strategy. First developed in Denmark in 1976, cohousing
combines upscale condomimum-style accommodations and privacy with the
shared responsibilities and amenities of communes.

The main difference between cohousing and the twentieth century's
standard apartment complex or condo is the sharing, which will be
tailored to suit the needs of the individuals involved. Most
labor-intensive family duties, including meals, child care, elder care,
and even education, will be handled communally to some extent. The result
will be considerable savings in time and effort, along with pleasant and
productive socializing--at least when the personality mix is right. For
example, a typical communal dinner arrangement might find residents
cooking and serving about once every two weeks, in exchange for having
the remaining 13 dinners cooked and served to them.

WHAT YOU HEAR IS WHAT YOU SEE

The videophone, meanwhile, will keep us in touch with faraway
relatives. Today when we use the phone, we are still communicating by
radio. With the addition of the videophone's visual dimension,
long-distance communication will be more like television.

The psychological and social connections fostered by the videophone
will transform human interaction. People experience intensely personal,
intimate feelings when they can see the person they're talking to; body
language comes into play and a person becomes something more than just a
disembodied voice. As self-employment, downsizing, and work
decentralization keep more and more people in their homes, face-to-face
communication will become increasingly uncommon--and therefore
increasingly important.

Currently communication industry experts are resisting the
videophone idea, pointing to market research that suggests people would
rather preserve the comparative anonymity of talking on the telephone.
Yet there were similar objections when the telephone answering machine
was introduced in the late 1970s. Analysts said that people felt
intimidated by the new devices and would not leave messages. In the
beginning that was often the case, but today if you call someone and
don't get an answering machine to pick up your call, you're probably
annoyed. You'll have to call back--an inconvenience. As for the privacy
problem, just as a mute button turns off a televisions sound, a "blind"
button will protect us from Peeping Toms.

MILLENNIUM HEALTH KIT

If you read magazines or watched television in the 1980s and 1990s,
it looked as if the whole country was running, pumping iron, and doing
aerobics. Sales of running and training shoes soared, and millions bought
rowing machines or signed up at gyms. A fitness trend had swept the
nation.

Or so it seemed. In reality, two-thirds of Americans were
overweight as the twentieth century came to a close. If you'd conducted
supermarket research, you would have seen battalions of out-of-shape
people pushing shopping carts filled with Twinkles, soft drinks, salty
snacks, cigarettes, candy, and processed frozen entrees. As for those
brisk sales of athletic shoes, 90 percent of the people who bought them
did so for comfort and fashion rather than for exercise.

Nevertheless, the health movement, hyped by fitness-gear
manufacturers and ballyhooed by the media, is real. And the fitness trend
will gather steam as more and more baby boomers begin "previewing":
seeing in their parents' aging what lies in store for them.

By the year 2000, getting and staying healthy will no longer be a
hobby but a necessity for survival. The health information people need
will be available; the difficulty will be distinguishing the gold from
the dross. Those who are serious about their millennium resolutions to
take better care of themselves will begin by checking into one of the new
longevity centers springing up around the country. Longevity centers will
be to health what colleges are to education--equal parts spa, health
club, hospital, detoxification center, fat farm, and resort. They will be
staffed with medical doctors well versed in both state-of-the-art
medicine and alternative therapies, as well as nutritionists,
acupuncturists, herbalists, chiropractors, and a diverse group of
physical, emotional, and spiritual therapists and healers.

Another key player will be the vitamin counselor. While vitamins
have been available in supermarkets and health food stores for decades,
it was only in the early 1990s that it became apparent that no two people
have the same nutritional needs. Effective vitamin counseling must be
individualized, just like effective medical advice; a person's age,
lifestyle, profession, and eating habits must be taken into account. But
most mainstream physicians have had little training in nutrition, and we
can't expect knowledgeable advice from minimum-wage clerks at health food
stores. Vitamin counselors, on the other hand, will be multidisciplinary
practitioners; they'll have a solid grounding of medical knowledge but
won't need four years of medical school. By the year 2000 they will be on
their way to becoming as professionalized and as respected as
pharmacists.

An age of intense health awareness, most people will give up their
StairMasters and stop training for marathons. Hyperactive workouts, while
better than nothing, won't be the answer to stress-filled but sedentary
lifestyles. Instead, we will integrate our workout routines into our
lives. If we haven't given up our lawns altogether, we'll replace our
power mowers with high-tech lightweight push mowers. And if we're using
our lawns to grow food, as most people will be, the physical work of
gardening will build bone and muscle.

We'll still use our local gym during the winter and in rainy
weather. But instead of doing the usual aerobics, we'll consider becoming
"aerobic warriors"-learning an aerobic workout that teaches us
self-defense techniques. Since we're putting in the physical effort
anyway why' not learn something with a practical application?

COMING ATTRACTIONS

Today, against the dark and violent backdrop of
late-twentieth-century life, many of the trends that will soon reshape
our lives are not yet apparent. But since writers, musicians, painters,
and filmmakers are by nature more sensitive than others to shifts in the
tempo of the times, these changes will be quickly reflected in the art of
the new century Just as rock and roll replaced swing and ragtime music, a
new genre of millennium music will emerge. It will be upbeat without the
anger and despair of today's cutting-edge rock and rap. Painting and
sculpture will be revolutionized by the incorporation of virtual reality
and computer technology New, friendly styles of architecture will replace
the impersonal cookie-cutter tract housing that has been the norm since
the 1950s.

The return of individuality will spell an end to the
multibillion-dollar fashion industry The bulk of day-to-day apparel will
consist of durable mass-produced casual wear. Where appearance matters,
the combination of computerization and declining wages will bring custom
tailoring back to an affordable price range. The result--personally
designed "smartwear"--will bridge the gap between casual and formal:
appearance-enhancing but comfortable.

Together, these and numerous other trends will help usher in a new
renaissance in thought. It will be an era of intense individuality
directed toward common goals. And like the European Renaissance of the
fourteenth through seventeenth centuries, the global renaissance ahead
will be a time of rich intellectual, philosophical, and artistic
achievement--a period of genius in the world's history.

From Trends 2000: How to Prepare for and Profit from the Changes of
the 21st Century, copyright (C) 1997 by Gerald Celente. Published by
Warner Books, Inc. Printed by permission.

ILLUSTRATION

Illustration by Francisco Caceres

7 TOP TRENDS FOR 1997

The new millennium may be around the corner, but we have to get
through 1997 first. Here are some of the trends that will make headlines
this year.

o Decocooning. For the last decade or so, many of us have been
"cocooning"--spending our free time holed up in our houses or apartments.
But as the work-at-home trend takes hold, Americans will want to break
out of their abodes at the end of the day. Already more people are
biking, hiking, and enjoying the great outdoors than ever before.

o The Roaring 2000s. Similarly, former homebodies are going to
demand new forms of entertainment, sparking an explosion in art, music,
and theater--a modern-day equivalent of the Roaring Twenties.

o Worker Revolts. One of the underreported stories of 1996 was the
massive street demonstrations in Indonesia, where people were tired of
working for slave wages. We're going to see more workers fighting for
higher pay, even in developed countries. It happened in Germany when the
government tried cutting pensions and health benefits. In Canada,
demonstrations almost shut down the Toronto Stock Exchange--and Canadians
never protest anything.

o Dr. Death. This summer the Supreme Court will likely rule on
physician-assisted suicide. Whatever the Court's decision, assisted
suicide is becoming part of our culture. Growing numbers of terminally
ill people simply don't want to live, and they will seek out euthanasia
just as they sought abortions when they didn't want children. Also, as
the population ages and medical costs rise, profit-hungry HMOS won't want
to pay for medical care for people whose lives are nearly over.

o Latino Chic. The macarena was only the beginning. Look for
Americans to embrace Latin culture--particularly its music--on a wide
scale.

o The Monopoly Backlash. The public is going to demand that the
government break up powerful corporate monopolies. One industry that will
almost certainly suffer the wrath of trust busters is health care. There
are insurance companies that also own HMOs, hospitals, and drug
manufacturers--the entire spectrum of medical services.

o All in the Family. The flip side of the antimonopoly movement.
Businesses that are family-owned and operated--or that at least give the
impression of being mom-and-pop establishments--will thrive.

MILLENNIUM Q & A

We asked trend expert Gerald Celente to give a further glimpse of
life in the twenty-first century.

PT: Some colleges now offer classes online. is the university as we
know it going to be become extinct?

Gerald Celente: Why should 300 kids trudge to a classroom in order
to hear a lecture? Soon they'll be able to listen to a professor from
home via their computer or videophone. Just imagine being able to learn
from an all-star cast of the world's greatest thinkers, no matter where
you are. This is going to revolutionize education, and it will make
higher learning affordable. So some colleges will disappear, the ones
that are on the brink of bankruptcy now. But there will always be a
Harvard.

PT: Unless there's a nuclear catastrophe of some sort, which you
think is inevitable.

GC: Absolutely--it's like betting on a one-horse race. In addition
to the likelihood of nuclear terrorism, there are now more than 400
nuclear power plants in operation worldwide, including many--especially
within the former Soviet Union--that are dangerously dilapidated. In
fact, Russia's chief nuclear scientist recently committed suicide in
despair over the deteriorating condition of the country's nuclear
infrastructure.

PT: Who will be the heroes of the new millennium?

GC: The word hero has lost its meaning. The new heroes are going to
be people with a strong spiritual or moral message--people we can believe
in, people who do things for the betterment of all living creatures and
not for their personal agenda.

PT: Will buying a house remain the American dream?

GC: The house is once again becoming a home, rather than just a
home base. The problem is that most households are losing economic
ground. in the 1980s people would buy a "starter" home and then trade up
to something better. Now they'll have to fix up and live with what they
have. They'll make their house more like an entertainment center, and
rather than spending their money on travel they'll spend it on things
like swimming pools. PT: Swimming pools?

GC: Instead of thinking of pools as status symbols or as places to
host pool parties, baby boomers will want them as a means of staying in
shape. Swimming is the perfect exercise, particularly for an aging
population prone to arthritis and other bone and joint diseases.

PT: What impact will Generation X have on American life in coming
years?

GC: It's a myth that a great psychological gap exists between
Generation Xers and baby boomers. There are more similarities between
these generations than differences. Both are pro-environment. They listen
to a lot of the same music. They share many political and economic
values.

So the next social upheaval in America won't come from Generation X
but from today's teens and preteens. They will be tomorrow's
revolutionaries. And just as the boomers protested the Vietnam War, these
kids are going to march against materialism and greed. They'll be driven
to it for a number of reasons, one being economic. They are not going to
have the same opportunities that the boomers or even Generation Xers have
had. Conspicuous consumption simply won't be an option for them.

20/20 FORESIGHT?

Forecasting is by nature a risky business, but Gerald Celente has
compiled an impressive track record. Among the events and trends he's
anticipated:

o The 1987 stock market crash--11 months before it happened.

o Dressing down at work.

o 1960s music in 1990s ads. Today it seems as though every third TV
commercial features a golden oldie by Aretha Franklin, the Kinks, or some
other baby boom icon.

o Corporate downsizing--or "dumbsizing," as Celente later termed
it.

o Gourmet coffee and microbrewed beer. Back when Sam Adams was just
a revolutionary war hero and nobody outside of Seattle had heard of
Starbucks, Celente predicted a boom in quality brews of both types of
beverage.