The Neurological Risks of Pandemics to World Leaders

From the days of Nero, the vulnerability of absolute rulers to insane or irrational decisions has been painfully obvious to their subjects. The coronavirus introduces a new level of risk for our aging leaders. This problem was highlighted by the experience of President Woodrow Wilson who was incapacitated by another coronavirus in the 1918 flu pandemic.

Wilson's Global Screw-Up

In negotiating an end to World War I, Wilson had the laudable goal of making Europe more peaceful and preventing future nationalistic conflicts. In this, he was opposed by the French prime minister, Clemenceau, who sought vengeance on Germany for their aggression. Wilson was a vigorous and effective negotiator and it looked as though his vision of a more peaceful Europe might prevail.

Then Wilson fell ill – most likely from the Spanish flu then raging across France. After weeks of confinement to bed with fever, vomiting, and diarrhea, Wilson recovered and came back to the talks. Observers noted that he was like a completely different man who had lost his fire and enthusiasm for the negotiations.

In the end, he conceded to most of the French demands, including German payment of reparations for the war, occupation by allied troops, and inability to raise an army. The provisions were designed to weaken and humiliate Germany and the Germans.

As Wilson had feared, this harsh treatment set the stage for future conflict. It destroyed the German economy and provided a fertile ground for xenophobic nationalism and the rise of the Nazi movement. Some historians believe that by putting Wilson off his game, the flu actually laid the groundwork for World War II.

Neurological Effects of Covid-19 Infection

Of course, the Spanish flu was another devastating novel coronavirus that killed even more people than had died in the World War. Here we are again today, with many leaders having been infected already. Most of these had deliberately downplayed the dangers of the pandemic, including British prime minister Boris Johnson.

To say that Wilson was not himself on his return to the Paris negotiations is an understatement. Outside the negotiations, his actions were disturbingly odd. For instance, he had the furniture brought out onto the lawn of his rented house and arranged in straight lines for no apparent reason. Such sudden idiosyncrasies are par for the course as far as coronavirus infection is concerned. The majority of Covid-19 patients still experience neurological symptoms several months after recovery. While it seems highly unlikely that the flu-addled brain of a major world leader would lay the foundation for World War III, enough leaders have now been infected to pose a real threat of serious harm from deranged leadership.

What if History Repeats Itself?

Among the well-known political leaders already infected with Covid-19 are President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, who described Covid-19 as a “little flu.” Johnson, who had taken a similarly cavalier attitude to the pandemic, found himself in intensive care and had to temporarily hand over duties to Dominic Raab.

Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau's wife tested positive, prompting him to go into quarantine. Covid-19 also circled the White House, made vulnerable by lack of proper social distancing and inadequate use of masks, with several staffers, including Ivanka Trump's assistant and Mike Pence's spokesperson testing positive.

History echoed itself when Michael Barnier, the European Union's top Brexit negotiator, fell ill and had to take a month off. The negotiations had already been canceled due to Covid-19 but he is already back at work.

Burundi's President-elect, Pierre Nikurunziga, is believed to have died of Covid which also infected many in his inner circle. The death was passed off as being due to a heart attack. Iranian health minister Iraj Harichi became infected at a time when that country's administration struggled to downplay the pandemic that infected 8 percent of its parliament in March.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Essential Reads

Update on COVID-19 and How It Changes the Brain

How Political Partisanship Can Be Deadly

Other leaders known to have been infected include Peter Dutton, Australia's Home Affairs minister, and Prince Albert II of Monaco.

Erratic Behavior and Lapses in Judgment

While Wilson's erratic conduct likely had grave consequences for history, how probable is it that the Covid-addled brain of a contemporary leader might have similar consequences? President Trump's decision-making is often erratic but there's a real possibility that it could become more so were he to become infected. It is unlikely that this will happen, though: Despite his cavalier, and irresponsible, statements concerning face masks, he is protected by scrupulous testing of everyone he comes in contact with. A world leader with a finger on the nuclear button and a brain on Covid doesn't bear thinking about.