How to Lower the Murder Rate

While most crime has declined in America, murder has not. According to FBI figures released this Monday, the U.S. has had a record-breaking annual increase in homicides in major cities. In 2020, 21,500 people were killed, an increase of nearly 30%. This is the highest spike in murders since the 1960s, when authorities started to keep national records. Things are so bad that the nation ranks in the global murder rate index worse than Pakistan, Sudan, and Angola.

American Murder Politics

The political response has been swift. Republicans vilify Democrats as soft on crime. And Democrats face an internal rift between progressives who demand an end to violent and unfair policing, and voters worried such a focus would not help in the face of growing violent crime. In his response so far, President Joe Biden has walked a fine line: emphasizing that states can use the $350 billion in COVID-19 relief funds to bolster local police departments, but also calling for better enforcement of gun control laws.

Fortunately, there is good scientific data about what works best to reduce murders. The empirical data shows that Republicans and Democrats are both right—and both wrong.

What the Data Show

Research shows that police do have an important role to play in reducing homicides. Studies consistently find that there is less violent crime when the chances of being caught and punished are high. Unfortunately, as Jill Leovy’s book Ghettoside has shown, all too often the quality of homicide investigation is highly uneven and correlates with the victims’ race and neighborhood. It is unsurprising, then, that some people of color argue that their communities need more and better policing. In fact, a recent Gallup poll found that 81% of Black Americans want police to spend the same amount or even more time in their area.

Severe Punishment Is Not the Answer

However, more police should not mean a return to steep sentences and mass incarceration. There is no evidence that stronger punishments—including the death penalty or long prison sentences—prevent murder. What works is smart enforcement that combines direct punishment threats to high-risk offenders with community support offering potential aggressors a real alternative to violence. That means providing immediate services to those willing to consider stepping away from violence, including offering cognitive-behavioral treatment, bolstering social services, conducting direct outreach through mentoring, and opening employment opportunities and job skills training. The idea is to work with the community to tailor the approach directly to what drives each person to engage in crime. When Cincinnati adopted this approach, it saw a 38% decline in gang-related homicides in just two years. Smart enforcement has reduced violent crime in most cities brave enough to adopt it.

Prison Cells at Old Idaho Penitentiary in Boise, Idaho

Source: Robert Crow/Fotolia

How to Prevent Murder

Police reform is equally important. To prevent murder, we need to combat racism and police violence. When communities do not trust law enforcement, they may not cooperate with police or report crime. Moreover, there is clear evidence that unfair policing stimulates more crime. The reality is that whatever the future of policing looks like, police cannot be effective if they do not build trust with the community they are supposed to protect and serve. So when we invest in law enforcement, one priority must be to eradicate the racism and violence that have plagued so many departments. No one should be against this idea, as it not only saves more of us from becoming victims of police misconduct but also is vital for controlling the spiraling murder rate.

Preventing homicide is a long game. It can’t be won with law enforcement reform alone. Murder thrives in poverty and the lack of education opportunities. Research analyzing data from 63 countries found a clear link between conditions of poverty and homicide, even when controlling for overall development, inequality, and population size and density. Just consider this fact: One additional year in school reduces murder and assault by 30%. The lesson is simple: True prevention starts with investing in poverty reduction and better education for all.

Preventing murder also requires a serious discussion about guns. As one study summarizes it: “more guns, more crime.” However, federal funding for research about the relationship between firearms and homicide has been blocked for 25 years.

Look at the Facts, Not Ideology

Enough already. End the murder politics. Dueling soundbites will lead to a rerun of the 1990s, when Democrats postured to look tough on crime to win elections. We know how that story ended: Then-Senator Biden wrote a crime bill that ballooned the American prison population without reducing crime.

This time we know better, and we should do better. If we burst out of the ideological bubbles, the U.S. can build an evidence-based strategy to end the killing.