Artificial Intelligence
The Great Filter and the Fermi Paradox
Why we may never meet our cosmic brethren.
Updated January 7, 2025 Reviewed by Devon Frye
Key points
- Humans' innate survival instincts may resist transformative innovations.
- Advanced tech can seem threatening, stalling progress.
- Technological advances can trigger societal and individual fears of becoming obsolete.
- The silence in space could be due to civilizations choosing survival over risky advancements.
In our quest to understand our place in the cosmos, two important concepts often emerge: the Fermi Paradox and the Drake Equation. The Fermi Paradox underscores a contradiction between the high probability of extraterrestrial civilizations existing in the universe, as suggested by the Drake Equation (a formula designed to estimate the number of advanced extraterrestrial civilizations), and the complete lack of evidence for or contact with such civilizations.
An intriguing explanation for this paradox may lie in the Great Filter concept, which posits that at some point between the emergence of life and the development of civilizations capable of colonizing galaxies, these civilizations face challenges so formidable that they hinder further progress or lead to extinction. This idea may resonate particularly well within psychological and sociological contexts, where a species' instinct for survival might inherently resist changes and innovations that could fundamentally alter or threaten its existence.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is an example of this phenomenon, as many modern-day humans feel reluctant to allow AI to advance past a certain point (a.k.a. a possible Great Filter), fearing that it could result in human extinction. Part of our survival instinct is to believe that the greater good prioritizes human survival above all.
Approximately 1.9 million years ago, Homo Habilis likely thought that the greater good prioritized them as they were evolutionarily antiquated in favor of Homo Erectus. The same holds for Homo Erectus from 400,000 years ago as they were evolutionarily antiquated in favor of Neanderthals, then again for Neanderthals from 300,000 years ago as they were evolutionarily antiquated in favor of us, Homo Sapiens. Our reluctance to embrace technological advancement for fear of antiquation may be the Great Filter that extraterrestrial civilizations face and have faced in their evolution.
The Instinct for Survival and Technological Advancement
At the core of every species is a survival instinct. This biological imperative drives behaviors that sustain life and ensure the continuation of a species.
However, this instinct may paradoxically lead a species to resist changes that, while potentially offering significant advantages—such as technological advancements—also carry unpredictable risks that could threaten the species’ existence.
For instance, envision a civilization on the verge of developing technology that would allow them to tap into the energy of their entire planet, representing a significant milestone on the Kardashev Scale (a lowest (1) to highest (7) scale of measuring a civilization's level of technological advancement based on the amount of energy they can utilize), which measures a civilization's technological progress based on the energy they can utilize.
On the one hand, this advancement signifies a monumental leap towards evolving into a spacefaring, galaxy-colonizing species. On the other hand, the profound transformations to their environment, society, and even biology that such advancements involve may be perceived as existential threats, triggering a deep, instinctual resistance.
Technological Innovation as a Threat to Existence
The advancement of technologies that can change the very fabric of a species' existence—such as artificial intelligence, genetic engineering, or large-scale energy harnessing—may face resistance due to a basic psychological aversion to existential risks. This aversion can manifest in various ways, including government policies that limit research and development to uphold current societal norms and public protests against perceived threats to the human (or alien) condition.
The journey toward a high Kardashev Scale civilization likely involves a series of technological innovations that gradually enhance a society’s ability to change both its environment and itself. Each advancement necessitates overcoming technological challenges and addressing sociopolitical, ethical, and existential issues. The fear of becoming obsolete—whether related to individual roles within society as automation and AI advance or concerning the species as genetic modifications or cybernetic enhancements become more common—can result in a collective standstill or a significant slowdown in progress.
The Great Filter and the Fermi Paradox
The Great Filter theory suggests that our lack of contact with extraterrestrial civilizations may arise from either their absence or their inability (or unwillingness) to overcome these critical thresholds. Like us, they might find themselves balancing the desire to advance with the instinct to maintain the status quo for survival.
This introduces a compelling psychological dimension to the Fermi Paradox, framing it not only as a physical or technological hurdle but also as a complex psychological and sociological issue.
Grasping the psychological factors behind why civilizations may resist potentially civilization-ending technologies provides a nuanced insight into the Fermi Paradox. It implies that the silence we experience could be a shared occurrence among conscious beings throughout the universe—a collective caution rooted in the instinct to survive rather than to self-destruct in the pursuit of progress.
Perhaps, in this vast and mysterious universe, the stars are quiet not because no one is out there, but because everyone is listening, reluctant to make the next move.
References
Bruner, E., Mantini, S., Perna, A., Maffei, C., & Manzi, G. (2005). Fractal dimension of the middle meningeal vessels: variation and evolution in Homo erectus, Neanderthals, and modern humans. European journal of morphology, 42.
De Visscher, A. (2020). Artificial versus biological intelligence in the Cosmos: clues from a stochastic analysis of the Drake equation. International Journal of Astrobiology, 19(5), 353-359.
Shkurko, A. V. (2024). The social science perspective on the Fermi paradox. International Journal of Astrobiology, 23, e13.
Youvan, D. C. (2023). Black Holes as Cosmic Signposts: The Great Filter Hypothesis.
Zhang, A., Yang, J., Luo, Y., & Fan, S. (2022). 2060: Civilization, Energy, and Progression of Mankind on the Kardashev Scale. arXiv preprint arXiv:2208.12617.