A Hovercraft Full of Eels

Confidence

The Hidden Dangers of Expert Overconfidence

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on April 1, 2024

Are experts more confident in what they know than what they don't? Yes, but it's not so clear-cut.

Are experts more confident in what they know than what they don't? Yes, but it's not so clear-cut.

Happiness

Fake It Til You Make It: The Overhyped World of Happiness

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on March 4, 2024

There are lots of ways to purportedly improve one's happiness. But do any of them actually work?

There are lots of ways to purportedly improve one's happiness. But do any of them actually work?

Bias

Is Bias in AI Necessarily a Problem?

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on February 5, 2024

The answer largely depends on the source of the bias and its impact on accuracy.

The answer largely depends on the source of the bias and its impact on accuracy.

Artificial Intelligence

Should We Use AI to Personalize Our Options?

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on January 8, 2024

Using artificial intelligence to serve consumers with perfectly personalized options sounds great, but there may be some unexpected downsides.

Using artificial intelligence to serve consumers with perfectly personalized options sounds great, but there may be some unexpected downsides.

Artificial Intelligence

Prediction Based on Past Data Has Its Limits

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on December 12, 2023

Artificial intelligence relies on past data to predict future outcomes, but if parameters change, so does prediction accuracy.

Artificial intelligence relies on past data to predict future outcomes, but if parameters change, so does prediction accuracy.

Unconscious

Is Intuition Actually Unconscious?

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on November 6, 2023

Is all decision-making conscious? A recent article claims yes, but the evidence is less overwhelming.

Is all decision-making conscious? A recent article claims yes, but the evidence is less overwhelming.

Bias

Action vs. Status Quo: Which Is More Problematic?

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on October 3, 2023

The action and status quo biases can both affect our decision-making. Each offers benefits in some situations, but both come with tradeoffs.

The action and status quo biases can both affect our decision-making. Each offers benefits in some situations, but both come with tradeoffs.

Happiness

Is There More to a "Good Life" Than Happiness and Meaning?

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on September 5, 2023

Recent articles have argued that we can obtain a good life without happiness and meaning. But does the evidence actually suggest this?

Recent articles have argued that we can obtain a good life without happiness and meaning. But does the evidence actually suggest this?

Career

Pay vs. Flexibility: The Decision-Making Conundrum

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on August 3, 2023

Many articles pit flexibility against pay and claim the former is more important to workers than the latter. But that likely isn't the case because both can be valued.

Many articles pit flexibility against pay and claim the former is more important to workers than the latter. But that likely isn't the case because both can be valued.

Artificial Intelligence

AI Can Increase the Importance of Human Expertise

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on July 5, 2023

Defaulting to AI-driven outputs can lead to unintended consequences. Might this suggest the need for human experts?

Defaulting to AI-driven outputs can lead to unintended consequences. Might this suggest the need for human experts?

Stress

Stress: A Topic Rife With B.S. and Overhype

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on June 5, 2023

Stress management is a multi-billion-dollar industry. But does it really provide much benefit?

Stress management is a multi-billion-dollar industry. But does it really provide much benefit?

Artificial Intelligence

Confirmation Bias in the Era of Large AI

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on May 1, 2023

Does the way you pose a question to ChatGPT, Bard, or other large language models affect out the output? It may under some conditions.

Does the way you pose a question to ChatGPT, Bard, or other large language models affect out the output? It may under some conditions.

Artificial Intelligence

AI Constraints Can Adversely Affect Informed Decision Making

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on April 4, 2023

How much stock should we put in AI-driven recommendations? A lot depends on how biased that information may be.

How much stock should we put in AI-driven recommendations? A lot depends on how biased that information may be.

Motivated Reasoning

Motivated Reasoning Plus Ideology Can Make You Foolish

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on March 6, 2023

People talk themselves into foolish ideas when they’re blinded by ideology. But can ideological capture be avoided?

People talk themselves into foolish ideas when they’re blinded by ideology. But can ideological capture be avoided?

Artificial Intelligence

Just How Accurate Is ChatGPT?

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on February 6, 2023

Does ChatGPT have the capacity to know the likely accuracy of its response? If not, would that make ChatGPT a bullsh*t expert?

Does ChatGPT have the capacity to know the likely accuracy of its response? If not, would that make ChatGPT a bullsh*t expert?

Decision-Making

The Twitter Files, the Laptop, and Human Decision-Making

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on January 9, 2023

Twitter Files 1 offers an insight into the fundamentals of human decision-making.

Twitter Files 1 offers an insight into the fundamentals of human decision-making.

Decision-Making

Data Can Often Be Used to Tell Many Stories

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on December 8, 2022

Data often tell a story, but that story often reveals as much about us as it does about the data.

Data often tell a story, but that story often reveals as much about us as it does about the data.

Artificial Intelligence

AI and Unintended Consequences for Human Decision Making

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on November 7, 2022

While AI is intended to help humans make decisions, relying on it may have unintended consequences.

While AI is intended to help humans make decisions, relying on it may have unintended consequences.

Artificial Intelligence

AI Has Serious Implications for Choice Architecture

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on October 5, 2022

AI has introduced the potential to use what is called "hypernudging" to continuously adapt to human decision-making. What implications does this have?

AI has introduced the potential to use what is called "hypernudging" to continuously adapt to human decision-making. What implications does this have?

Intelligence

Choice Architecture: Whose Interests Matter?

Matt Grawitch Ph.D. on September 8, 2022

The way choices are presented to us can influence our decisions. Does it matter whose interests take priority?

The way choices are presented to us can influence our decisions. Does it matter whose interests take priority?