May the Tallest Man Win

Looking to predict election returns? Let the pundits puzzle over voters' whims—and open the annals of psychology instead.

First principle: Big brother is always right.

Being the firstborn child doesn't just mean you get to stay up later; it also may win you the country. Firstborn and only children are overrepresented everywhere in politics, from congressmen to Australian prime ministers. U.S. presidential contests are no different: Big brother George W. beat out little brother Al Gore; older brother Bill Clinton trumped Bob Dole, the second of four children.

Several hypotheses attempt to explain the successes of the firstborns and of only children. One theory holds that the boost comes from the initially undiluted resources firstborns receive from their parents. A rival interpretation posits that the dominance of firstborns in leadership roles is due to their early training as tutors, mentors (and rulers) of their younger brothers and sisters.

Stats:

George W. Bush: older brother to Jeb, Neil, Marvin, Dorothy and Robin (now deceased).

John Kerry: Second of four: John is an older brother to Diana and Cameron, but younger than Peggy.

Edge: Bush

Second principle: Height makes might.

Apparently, we really do look up to our leaders. The taller candidate has won every presidential contest in the past quarter-century. Recent presidents all tower above the average five-foot-nine American man: George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton see eye-to-eye at six foot two, and Ronald Reagan was a lanky six foot one. Runners-up tend to be shorter—think Michael Dukakis. In a case of the exception proving the rule, Al Gore, who won the popular vote in 2000, is two inches taller than W.

According to management professor Timothy Judge of the University of Florida in Gainesville, the connection between height and success is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Taller people are perceived as more competent and authoritative, Judge theorizes, so they are more likely to develop the high self-esteem that can lead to a job that brings a bigger paycheck.

Stats:

Bush 5' 11"

Kerry: 6' 4"

Edge: Kerry

Third principle: Nothing beats a pretty face.

Even though we should know better, we tend to assume that strangers with baby faces—wide eyes, full lips, soft brow—are trustworthy, if naive. By contrast, those with heavy brows, small eyes and thin lips (think Richard Nixon) are seen as both powerful and cunning. Colgate University psychologist Caroline Keating digitally altered a photo of Bill Clinton's face to make both a baby-face version and an artificially aged one. As she predicted, students rated "young" Clinton as warmer and more honest; "old" Clinton seemed more powerful.

So which faces win elections? Generally, we like leaders who have a bit of both extremes, says Keating, but it probably depends on whether voters prefer a shrewd leader or an honest one.

Stats:

Bush: His round chin makes him look boyish and genuine, says Keating, emphasizing his nice-guy image. Nonetheless, his small eyes and bushy brows signal dominance. A campaign focusing on personal integrity will put that face to good use, she says.

Kerry: Heavy brows, prominent chin and thin lips transmit dominance and status. His wavy, tousled, hair, more characteristic of boyhood, is an odd contrast. Keating guesses that people don't know quite what to make of his face.

Edge: Bush, mostly because of the "exposure effect": Seeing the same face many times tends to render it more appealing.

These psychosocial measures aren't foolproof. Bill Bradley, a six-foot-five only child with a sweet face, lost the Democratic nomination in 2000.