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This RR express (Romney-Ryan) is no certain ticket to ride. Mitt Romney in choosing his running mate Paul Ryan has pushed the psychology of uncertainty to the forefront of this Presidential election. Uncertainty is one of our major sources of fear. Uncertainty = risk = fear. Given Ryan’s extreme views on many issues, he is a risky choice, raising the levels of uncertainty about the fate of these issues if the Romney-Ryan ticket prevails. This risk is added to Romney’s already troubled campaign (e.g., his business history, income taxes, gaffes, etc.).
The risks for RR at this point include but are not limited to the following:
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The biggest risk is alienating boomers, seniors and the middle to low SES (SocioEconomicStatus) voters due to the Ryan proposals, which we assume RR will adopt, to eliminate Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security as we know them. This is as big a domestic risk as one could take. The cost/benefit prediction formula for this proposal is at extremely high levels of uncertainty. Accurately predicting the long-term outcome of this is nearly impossible, particularly given the abysmal ability of both economics and psychology to predict important long-term real-world economic behavior.
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Alienating many women voters over Ryan’s strong stand against abortions, support for Planned Parenthood, etc.
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Give up the possibility of wooing significant numbers of America’s largest minority, Hispanics, if Senator Rubio of Florida had been Romney’s choice for Vice President, something which had apparently been under consideration at one point.
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Raise the spectre of possibly increased gun violence in the long term if Ryan’s views on guns and gun control have any impact. The National Rifle Association grades him an “A” for, in their judgment, his pro-gun rights voting record. He voted Yes to decrease the 3 day waiting period to one day in the purchase of guns, which would drastically reduce any “cooling-off” period, and voted against a Washington, D.C. gun registration and trigger-lock law. The RR campaign is occurring in the middle of a national debate over reducing gun violence, and with a recent mass killing at a Temple in Ryan’s backyard. The uncertainty over the future of gun violence in America may raise the riskiness associated with the choice of Ryan.
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Risking being entirely out-of-step with the long sweep of civil rights history in America including gay rights, gay marriage, and so on. Ryan voted yes for a Constitutional Amendment banning same-sex marriage, banning gay adoptions in D.C. and received a ACLU rating of 13% reflecting in their judgment, an anti-civil rights voting record.
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RR risk a focused national opposition from most or all unions given Ryans opposition to unions, with the AFL-CIO giving him a rating of 7% for his, in their judgment, anti-union voting record.
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Where education is concerned, RR risks organized national opposition from various education groups over some of Ryan’s views on education, teachers and teacher unions. The National Education Association, the nation’s largest teacher union, rates Ryan at 8%, reflecting, to them, his anti-public education votes.
These are fearful times, driven by a bad economy. Ryan’s economic plans will be subjected to more scrutiny during the campaign than ever before by major economists and scholars from all persuasions who will of course come down on all sides, raising the uncertainty of those plans even higher for the electorate and scaring people toward the known, toward the familiar. Major risk-taking as embodied at the very center of Ryan’s economic proposals may raise the possibility of a yet bigger failure than we have already experienced, and many voters, including independents, will decide to stay with the “lesser of two evils”.
I should note that RR’s base will presumably not view the seven risks above as risky or will see them as risks worth taking; they will support Ryan on those points. There are only weeks to the election, when we will know whether uncertainty and risk may lie at the heart of any Ryan influence, and can then assess the wisdom of the Ryan choice and perhaps learn something about risk in politics. One recalls John McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate, widely cited as a risky choice, for different reasons from the Ryan pick, and it was, well, a disaster!
Paul Ryan, having by many accounts a likable personality, will make the Romney-Ryan ticket less bland, more youthful, perhaps more decisive, and perhaps, for some, scarier.
Frank Farley, PhD., is a psychologist and L.H.Carnell Professor, Temple University, Philadephia, and Former President, American Psychological Association. He can be reached at frank.farley@comcast.net or (215)668-7581
