Can President Obama succeed in the face of the nation's international challenges, its economic woes, and the continuing political divisiveness in Washington? Part of the answer may involve his motivational profile.
Psychologists have analyzed the motivational profiles of US Presidents so as to uncover the likely secrets to the leaders' relative successes and failures. (Last week's post describes the methods of assessment that sometimes are used).
The motives studied are just a few of the many parts of an individual's personality, but can be influential nonetheless.
Professor David Winter of the University of Michigan, has recently completed a motivational profile of President Obama, based on President Obama's inaugural address and other materials.
Winter reported his findings in an advance e-mail sent to colleagues. His analysis now has been released officially through the newsletter of the International Society for Political Psychology, the ISPPNews.
Professor Winter pays attention to three motives in particular: achievement, affiliation, and power. Based on his analyses of President Obama's inaugural address and other materials, he concluded that the new president is:
- average in the need for achievement
- high in need for affiliation, and
- very high in the need for power
It is fortunate that President Obama comes across as only average in the motive to achieve. Although the need to achieve is very helpful for business leaders, it can be problematic for presidents. People high in achievement needs want to accomplish things while meeting high standards of performance, even hoping to achieve perfection.
Achievement-motivated presidents are energetic but often find the job unrewarding. Because they aim for excellence and adherence to their principles, they begin to perceive themselves as stuck in a swamp of compromises. Their energy levels may drop as a consequence.
According to Professor Winter, President Obama's affiliation motive is higher than average. Affiliation-oriented presidents focus on being liked. They often are more successful at negotiating arms limitations agreements and de-escalating tensions with other nations: they also, however, are more likely to become involved in scandals due to loyalty to their friends.
Winter notes that President Obama's high need for affiliation has been exhibited in his desires to unify and reach across the aisle to his political opponents, whereas his even higher need for power (which I'll talk about next) was evident in his insistence that his stimulus package be passed, even without Republican cooperation.
President Obama is very high in power. People high in this motive want to influence others, to direct and guide them, and sometimes, to reward or punish them.
Power-motivated presidents," says Winter, "...invest a good deal of energy in their job, and they enjoy it. In politics, personal control is not a given, but must be continually created, negotiated, and 'schmoozed.'
Power-motivated presidents thrive at such tasks. Here is a key passage from Winter's predictions for the future:
...Obama's high power and only average achievement motivation suggests that he will continue to demonstrate political effectiveness and charisma. (Achievement motivation often leads to success in business, but usually is associated with frustration and failure in politics.) His sense of humor and ability to take pleasure from being president will likely tide him over the inevitable frustrations of office that dragged down more achievement-motivated presidents such as Jimmy Carter. In addition, presidents scoring high in power motive imagery are prone to aggressive policies, often leading the nation into military action. Obama has consistently advocated withdrawing American forces from Iraq, but is willing to escalate in Afghanistan. Depending on circumstances, it is possible that the U.S. could become militarily involved in other potential trouble spots, such as a collapsing Pakistan, a nuclear-armed Iran or North Korea, or even chaos in Mexico.
Presidents with high affiliation scores work at making peace and limiting arms. On the downside, they are vulnerable to political scandals on the part of their cabinet and staff -- perhaps because they tend rely too much on friends and cronies for advice.
Winter goes on to note that the presidents with the closest motivational profiles to those of our current president are Presidents Harry Truman and John F. Kennedy.
Beyond motives, Winter noted, President Obama's calmness, openness to experience and intelligence will work in his favor.
Professor Winter concludes, echoing Charles Dickens, that such predictions are but the "shadows of the things that may be...", and asks us to check back in future years to see what actually has transpired.
* * *
Professor Winter's analysis appears in the just-posted Spring, 2009 issue of ISPPNews, the Newsletter of the International Society of Political Psychology.
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Notes: This post is based on Winter (2009). Predicting the Obama Presidency. ISPPNews, 19. Advanced copy via e-mail from Professor Winter, March 2nd, 2009 (embargoed by request until release of the newsletter). Background material also was drawn from: Winter, David G. (2005). Things I've learned about personality from studying political leaders at a distance. Journal of Personality, 73, 557-584, and Winter, D. G. (1992) A revised scoring system for the power motive. In Smith, C. P. (Ed.). Motivation and personality, Cambridge University Press, pp. 313-315). The quote, "Power-motivated presidents invest a good deal of energy..." is from Winter, 2005, pp. 561-562).
The sentence clarifying that these motives represent just part of personality was added about 14 hours and revised 16 hours after the original post. I cut what now appears to me to be a redundant sentence in the opening 18 hours after.
Copyright © 2009 John D. Mayer
