This is Part 2 of a series on how the next president's personality may influence the country and its direction.
The personality of the next president will be crucial to how the country is governed. Key decisions concerning the nation and its economy, wars, and international position, will be guided by a single individual: our next leader.
Last week, Part I of this post outlined six expectations that citizens have of their president: (1) to be led, (2) to hear forceful, convincing communications, (3) to form strong attachments, (4) to be treated justly, (5) to have their identity clarified and reflected, and (6) to be guided in a strong, active, positive fashion.
Beyond these general needs, presidential personality will be shaped by the political times. In his 1997 book, The Politics Presidents Make, Stephen Skowronek defines an incoming president's tasks as determined, in part, by the established political regime and whether the president is allied or opposed to that regime.
An established political regime, in Skowronek's terms, refers to a group of presidents who follow one another over time and share a political agenda along with a set of political commitments and arrangements.
One example of a political regime is the New Deal regime that proceeded, roughly, from the time of Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Democratic victory through Jimmy Carter's presidency. That regime's agenda and commitments generally affirmed government action, intervention and regulation, civil rights, and (to a lesser extent) foreign engagement.
More recently, the established Republican regime can be viewed as extending from Ronald Reagan's presidency through the current president George W. Bush. This regime's agenda and commitments mostly affirmed states rights, economic deregulation, budgetary constraint, and (to a lesser extent, because it was limited by foreign acts of terrorism) foreign disengagement.
Political regimes often begin with an inventive, activist president who establishes an agenda and a set of commitments to the citizenry and special interests. Subsequent presidents then maintain the regime by carefully distinguishing themselves from the past, while further developing and refining the political program. The first President Bush, for example, successfully continued Ronald Reagan's practices by emphasizing a "kinder and gentler" approach.
At their heights, established political regimes are considered resilient. An opposition candidate may win, pre-empting the agenda and shifting it slightly. Unless the pre-empting president is very successful, however, the resilience of the regime will reassert itself at the next election and continue the original regime more-or-less as before. For example, President Clinton pre-empted the ongoing Republican regime, but the second George Bush reverted it to an updated version of Reagan's mission.
At other times, regimes may be relatively vulnerable. At those times, the presidential candidate who is affiliated with the regime, and hopes to continue it, must distinguish him or herself from the past, while promising to redirect and renew the regime's missions. The opposition candidate, on the other hand, must oppose the regime, and, once elected, articulate a new presidential program.
Following Skowronek's argument, it appears to me as if we are led at present by a somewhat vulnerable Republican regime. I say this because of our current Republican president's low approval ratings, and because of the number of Republicans who are attempting to distance themselves from his policies. Vulnerability also appeared to be present earlier in the year when members of the base of the Republican party seemed uncertain in their support of their party's current nominee for president.
More specifically, the two presidential candidates in the 2008 election face different challenges. John McCain is affiliated with the recent Republican regime. Barak Obama, is the opposition candidate. If McCain wins, he will be expected to continue to articulate the regime and modify its course to rejuvenate it. When McCain speaks of stewardship of the economy, for example, he is articulating that sort of preserving-and-enhancing-the-regime vision.
Obama, on the other hand, is running in opposition to the regime. If the Republican regime is vulnerable, he will be (according to Skowronek) a lucky candidate who has the leeway to establish a new regime. If it turns out that Obama wins but merely interrupts a strong Republican regime, then he will face constant opposition (as did President Clinton).
Not everything is context, however. Through the force of personality, a president may be able to interrupt a resilient regime, reveal its weaknesses, and begin a new regime. Or, a new president affiliated with a vulnerable regime may be able to rejuvenate it.
Weakness of personality also may influence the outcome. For example, a new opposition president with poor leadership skills may fail to topple a vulnerable regime; alternatively, a new regime-affiliated president may fail owing to his or her own weaknesses.
As I interpret their respective situations, Barak Obama's main task will be to create a new political agenda and commitments. To succeed, Obama must be willing to forge ties with others, be innovative and creative, be inspirational in the advocacy of his new vision, and be tireless.
By contrast, John McCain's main task will be to distinguish himself from the previous Republican administration while continuing its basic principles and strengthening them. To succeed, McCain must stay on message, celebrate small but meaningful differences between himself and earlier leaders, and operate effectively with the levers of power within the government so as to strengthen his position and that of his party.a must draw on to accomplish these goals will be considered in Part 3 of this post.
Notes: I relied in part on Goethal's review of presidential leadership for this summary of Skowronek's book: Goethals, G. R. (2005). Presidential leadership. Annual Review of Psychology, 56, 545-570. Goethal's summary extends from pp. 559-563, as well as on several independent reviews of Skowronek's work. Skowronek develops his ideas in his 1993 book,The politics presidents make: Leadership from John Adams to George Bush. Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
© Copyright 2008 John D. Mayer
