The United States soccer team plays Ghana in about, oh, two hours! I think Bob Bradley (the coach) listened to my last blog and I hate ESPN's prediction computer too. USA! USA!
Just for some background, I am safely a diehard US soccer fan. I have missed watching maybe 2 games that have been on TV of theirs in the past four years.
So naturally, I woke up today eager to scope the internet for information on the game. I soon came across ESPN's computer prediction system. At first, it picked the USA to win around 60% of the time. I thought to myself, "gee, this is one wise machine." Then I noticed that it had an option to click on "home continent advantage" for Ghana, and then the blasted (clearly now stupid) machine picked Ghana 51% of the time! Isn't it amazing how I went from thinking highly of the computer picking system to horribly in a matter of seconds?
Research shows that people, in general, trust their own instincts over statistics and computer picking devices. This is the case, for me at least, even though I know that there formulas are more accurate at picking games than a single human could ever be.
About an hour after my encounter with this now clearly stupid and incorrect machine, I re-read my last blog. I read the part where I said coach Bob Bradley should play Maurice Edu, Benny Feilhaber and Demarcus Beasley in the match. My almost automatic reaction was that Bob Bradley was maybe listening to me, that he had stumbled across my sage advice in this blog! (all 3 played)
Now, clearly that is as likely as me dying while typing this. But I am not alone in this. Research by Emily Pronin of Princeton University shows that people believe that their thoughts have "magical" power over others. Specifically, people thought about other people doing certain tasks (e.g., making free throws) or not. When they viewed the other person later making free throws, they believed they were partially responsible for the made free throws. This also occurred when they wished someone negative thoughts and they came true.
In other words, just like I had an auto reaction that my thoughts (words) had magically influenced Bob Bradley (they didn't), so too did these participants think that when they thought about a different person making free throws, those thoughts caused the person to make them.
Go USA! That computer picking system is clearly stupid. USA! USA!
