Sex, Murder, and the Meaning of Life

Exploring the simple selfish biases that make us caring, creative, and complex.

by Douglas Kenrick

Tsunamis, Sharks, and Nuclear Reactors: In Defense of Defensiveness

Why are we phobic of unlikely events?

Published on March 25, 2011 by Douglas T. Kenrick, Ph.D. in Sex, Murder, and the Meaning of Life

When the tsunami struck Japan, I was visiting Australia, where one encounters frequent reminders that the odds of being eaten by a shark are substantially lower than the odds of being killed in your car on the way to the beach. Analogously, those who study the psychology of risk like to compare per-mile probabilities of dying in an airplane crash with the mileage-corrected probability of dying in a car wreck. On that reasoning, some experts are now suggesting that we shouldn’t be so neurotic about the danger of nuclear accidents, given that no one actually died of radiation after the recent events in Japan (see for example, Kevin Kelly’s recent Edge essay Passing a Worst-Case Scenario Test).

The psychology of risk is a fascinating and complex issue, but I’ll offer a defense of defensiveness. For me, it’s a question of psychological economics: What is the enjoyment you’ll get from a given activity, and is it worth the risk? To a risk-averse person like me, the slight risk of death is enough to keep me away from some otherwise enjoyable recreational activities (scuba diving in any body of water with any frequency of sharks; skydiving in any body of air over four feet above the earth’s surface). If you’re worrying about death, that adds a large cost to an otherwise beneficial experience. I believed the statistics about the low likelihood of shark attacks, and yet I stayed out of the ocean. My problem was that I kept remembering a vivid story of a colleague who was actually attacked by a shark during her tenure as an assistant professor in the land down under. Instead of swimming in the shark-infested waters, I spent my time hiking around in what the Aussies call the “bush.” As it turns out, I was bitten by a couple of mosquitos and attacked by a leech, greater pains than I encountered during several days at the shore. But I was comfortable with my avoidant decision. On dry land, I was able to keep an eye on any kangaroo who might want to challenge me to a boxing match.

See All Stories In

Here Comes the Story of the Hurricane

Find a Therapist

Search for a mental health professional near you.

Find Local:

In college, I had a friend who, despite his 158 IQ, had an affinity for taking foolish risks. He rode a Harley motorcycle, and got a great kick out of roaring down the Long Island Expressway at 120 mph. He liked to brag that his enjoyment of that experience was amplified by a few stiff shots of 151 rum. His defense: “It’s important to live life to the fullest, because you never know what will get you. Some people get killed crossing at an intersection.” My reaction was: While you may be taken out by random unforeseen events, you have some control over probabilities. Some intersections are a lot more dangerous to cross, and crossing them drunk on a speeding motorcycle gives random unforeseen events a bit more of a chance to strike.

With regard to tsunamis and nuclear reactors, I was not alone in worrying about what would happen if one or two of those babies really blew sky high on the next round, and wondering what would be the harm in investing in solar, wind, and tidal energy instead of simply keeping our fingers crossed with regard to one of those unforeseen Black Swan events.

From an evolutionary perspective, it makes eminent sense to favor prevention over cure. Thoughout human history, unexpected events have often involved violence, disease, and death. We are the descendants of those who were careful enough to avoid the latter (at least long enough to raise a child to the age where he or she had the good sense to survive and avoid the next round of threats). Am I being neurotic? Yes, but we all come from a long line of successful worriers.

Check out what some of my favorite science writers are saying about my new book, or look inside at: Sex, Murder, and the Meaning of Life: A psychologist investigates how evolution, cognition, and complexity are revolutionizing our view of human nature.