b.      Pauly D eventually recovers from the loss of his highly-cherished cast mate, but before he re-attains his veneer of calm, composed affability he reveals his distress. He has a sort of mini-crises, in which he walks around with an 'I can't believe Vinnie actually left, what am I supposed to do now?' look on his face. It doesn't last very long but it's a lot of vulnerability from Pauly D, and it speaks to something significant that I'll address in a minute.

c.       Snooki and Nicole run off to the bars to get drunk, which, yes, is the continuation of a default pattern of 'excessive' alcohol abuse (no judgment, but lots of sympathy given the drunk nights always end badly), but they do it differently this time. There's a palpable sense of urgency and anxiety. They're like two horses chomping at the bit to dash out of the starting gate and get the race over with.

d.      As a runner-up to Vinnie, the most severely distressed individual of the group is Mike. He's going through a similar existential crisis but unlike Vinnie he isn't fully aware of it. He's in a big-time funk. He's depressed, he's walking around in a daze, and he's sleeping on couches in public restaurants.

I'm recounting the apparent distress that has afflicted the majority of the Jersey Shore crew to set up the following inquiry: Where is all this stress coming from? Why is the evenly-tempered, psychologically healthy Vinnie utterly overcome with anxiety? Why does the mild-mannered, exceedingly confident Pauly have such fear in his eyes when Vinnie departs? What imaginary force has propelled Snooki and Nicole to run, not walk, to the nearest bar? What has Mike knee-deep in clinical depression?

I'm going to offer a unifying theory, here. It's more of a sociological angle into the problem and is, at best, a partial contributor. As a caveat I'll note that each cast member's distress contains within it idiosyncratic forces. Obviously each person acts as they do for reasons unique to their lives and personalities. For instance, Mike's apparent depression is partially due to a narcissistic injury. This happens when someone who is narcissistic experiences rejection. The group clearly likes Pauly D more than Mike and they prove this time and again throughout the day of their shared birthday as the celebrate Pauly D's day of birth and ignore Mike's.

But what's more interesting and explains the fact that the cast mates are psychologically 'dropping like flies' is a subtle, sociological factor that has to do with a shift in their celebrity. Their identity used to be that of anonymous, relatable strangers, thrown into a house for an exciting experiment involving special privileges and freedom, with the aim of simply being themselves. It was a short-term, 'do your best to do something memorable' contract. But that's not what it's turned into. Two years and five televised seasons' later things have changed quite dramatically. And this most recent episode marks a tipping point.

The tipping point is this: It's not clear exactly how each cast mate thought about their celebrity in the beginning, but it likely involved imagining an audience of their personal social support networks of friends and family and, at most, an outer rung of faceless Facebook friends and interested bloggers, etc.. Literally and metaphorically, they were on a stage in front of a recognizable, manageable audience, with little being demanded beyond surviving the stress of being on television.

This has always seemed too good to be true, right? Why should normal, everyday people achieve significant fame, money and praise for doing nothing other than being arbitrarily selected by an MTV production crew?

Well, the other shoe has now dropped. In the same way that life becomes harder when a child becomes an adult, the cast of the Jersey Shore is in an inevitable and challengin transition of development. The audience has changed. It has diversified and expanded. And with these changes in the audience comes changes in the experience of being 'watched,' being in the limelight. Again, in the beginning the audience could be engaged easily enough, and would readily offer positive reinforcement. But now the cast is peering out into a vast audience that, among other things, expects more.

And, of course, the Jersey Shore cast has no idea what to do. How could they? Yes, they are on stage but they are not entertainers. They have no skill set, no idea how to entertain. They are like audience members that have been called up to the stage by an interactive host who has now abandoned the show. Imagine such a moment. Imagine you're that person on stage. Sweat starts to trickle down your face. The butterflies start to flap in your gut. Time slows down. An uncomfortable murmur of boredom begins to ripple through the increasingly restless crowd. The silence is deafening.

I'm not saying that the Jersey Shore cast experiences every waking moment in such an acute manner, but this is the pressure that exists, and it's mounting.

Vinnie, the most insightful and thoughtful member of the group, is the first to truly tune into this pressure, and to recognize the subtle psychological shift in expectations and roles. And whether it's because he wants to do something else with his life or because he just doesn't like being asked to do something that he doesn't know how to do, he's voluntarily exited stage right. And it's no wonder that Pauly D felt abandoned - he must continue to learn how to be a performer without his primary weapon - Vinnie (i.e. their elaborate handshakes, running jokes, and deepening, exciting bromance was the most successful means of entertaining us to date).

Snooki and Nicole have perhaps a less sophisticated sense of where the mounting pressure is coming from, but they feel it and they are turning to the one role they feel comfortable in, the one role they believe is expected and can entertain - getting drunk and acting silly. It seems they've turned to the Paris Hilton guide to fame in this moment of desperation. Not the wisest move. And Mike is enduring a special kind of torture. He desperately wants to be liked. And he knows that everyone is watching him, and, tragically, what they are watching is the story of a man who is distinctly not liked by every single cast mate.

What Mike does to construct this harsh reality, and how he can make changes to be more socially accepted and appreciated is a blog post for another day, but the point here is that he doesn't know how to entertain either, and it's giving him a significant psychological headache.

The Jersey Shore has hit a wall. It was inevitable given the growth of their celebrity and lack of performance skills. Crossroads are interesting places because they tend to offer limited options. Here, the choices seem to be death or rebirth. I predict that greater success and popularity can actually be achieved by this group but it'll take a collectively healthy coping response. And I suspect that a healthy coping response will involve explicitly discussing this shift in their celebrity with an audience that they can more graciously and boldly acknowledge on the show. And they must band together to figure out how to live their lives more openly, genuinely and adventurously while on camera. We want to watch adaptation, adjustment, and growth, not the slow, steady decline of unaware, miserable, and detached individuals.

Do they have it in them? It's a good reason to stay tuned.