How can an oil-rich country of only 6 million people be poor? The answer is no mystery to political analysts or historians, but psychologists rarely wonder about such questions, except for those who study leadership. Indeed, a leader's personality has consequential effects not only on his followers or subordinates, but on an entire nation. The images from Tripoli today, with rebels furiously kicking the statue of Gaddafi and setting fire to his bunker, will enter the history book and serve as a time-less reminder of what a single psychopath can do to a country (and others).
In order to understand Libya you need to understand the personality of its leader. Politically, the facts are clear: this is country with no political institutions and no justice system; not even an army (that was just his son's role in the family business). So, for the first time in 40 years or so the Libyan people will be able to have a taste of democracy, though we know it will take time for things to settle. Psychologically, the only way to understand Libya's history is through a detailed personality profile of Gaddafi (his needs, style, goals and power). As we have little space here, we can instead give a generic diagnosis for him, and there is absolutely no doubt that the man is a psychopath -- clinical diagnosis rarely comes as easy as this. And what happens when you have a psychopath running your country for 40 years? Tune into CNN, Fox or the BBC to get the answer.
In a recent chapter, Robert Hogan and I argued that personality dictates the laws or "synthax" of history. This may seem like an over-the-top dramatic affirmation but consider the following: in every society, there has always been a leader or someone in charge. That person exerts substantially more influence on the life of the group (and every individual in it) than most of the group members combined. How do these people get to the top? Some use more democratic means than others, but all of them master the art of social coordination: that is, they are able to successfully influence other people and get their respect (sometimes through admiration, as with Obama, sometimes through fear, as with Gaddafi). The people who rise to the top in a small group then compete with the leaders from other small groups, and the winner gets promoted to the higher leagues of society to compete with the leaders of bigger organizations, and so on.
Importantly, the leaders create a culture for their subordinates (whether they are employees or citizens, law-abiding or not); indeed, you can think of culture as the values of the elite or the people in charge (and remember that ultimately there is only one person in charge). Take Libya as a current example for this: what we are witnessing now is a cultural change, which will be succeeded by a change in climate and everyday changes in the life of Libyans. Right now, the people who are celebrating with the rebels are happy that Gaddafi is gone, but what they need to understand it that the next Gaddafi could be jumping and firing his machine-gun, right next to them. Gaddafi was surely a psychopath, but the only reason he is gone now is because other leaders (and if you want to single out one person, you need to look inside the White House) had decided to compete against him and remove him: after decades of collaborating with him, sometimes for passively than others.
Thus, the future of Libya will depend on the personality of its leader, so long as he or she remains in charge. Our model (see diagram above) illustrates the role of personality in the cycle of history. Carlyle was right when he said that history was the biography of great men, but the evidence is much more compelling when the "great men" are psychopaths. The next 40 years of Lybia will continue to be influenced by Gaddafi's legacy (whatever happens to him), just like Europe and the world continue to be influenced by Hitler's legacy, etc. Psychologists should pay more attention to the personality profiles of political leaders, and one day they may even help others prevent historical disasters.
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