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John Nofsinger is an associate professor of finance at Washington State University and a speaker, writer, and scholar on behavioral finance. See full bio

Comments on "The Treasury Bubble"

The Treasury Bubble

After witnessing the tech stock bubble and the real estate bubble, what is next? It is the US Treasury security market bubble. When will it burst and skyrocket interest rates? Read More

The Treasury Bubble

I believe that the treasury bubble will harm our economy because all the investors from the real estate and tech stock markets are running to the government for help. If many investors are then relying on the government to "bail" them out of their crises, than the government will also have more of a crises. Since U.S. debt is increasing rapidly, these investments in our treasury may exponentially increase the debt that our nation has. It worries me to think about the future of our money and assets, because I believe that the value of these items is going to greatly decrease and harm the economy even further.

So that means...

We shouldn't put money in treasuries, and not in real estate either, so we should buy stock? Or is the entire economy just going to collapse, and terrible things will happen, like Germany in 1923?

It will be very interesting

It will be very interesting to see when the treasury bubble will burst and the effects this burst will have on the economy. Everyone around the country has felt the effects of the real estate market bubble bursting and this has not put the government in a very good position to aid people in bad financial positions. Hopefully the treasury bubble will not be so drastic or cause such negative effects upon the economy if/when it bursts. It will be very interesting to see how both citizens and the government will react to yet another economic crisis and if there is a particular demographic or class affected by this crisis.

Even if the treasury bubble

Even if the treasury bubble does burst, I think it will effect the U.S. economy, but I don't think it will destroy it. Other countries are reliant on our country's owed debt to them so if our economy gets destroyed, so will theirs so I think that other countries will either lend the United States more money or allow more time to be paid off.

Things could get ugly

If the treasury bubble bursts, and I think this is a very possible situation, we could see a meltdown of the global economy. As we saw with the auto bail outs, one crash can have drastic effects resonating throughout the world. If the United States government were to curb its spending we could see the bubble deflate to appropriate levels rather than pop.

I sure hope not

Hopefully the Treasury bond bubble does not burst. It could easily lead to global implications with many foreign investors. If the U.S. government would curb their spending it would help greatly. I do not see the government curbing their spending, so hopefully people of wise minds and powerful positions like Ben Bernake will elicit proper warnings to investors and the demand will decrease accordingly staving off disaster. This is a very scary and real problem though especially with Bernake and the Fed continually desiring to give positive signals to the public regardless of what is actually occurring.

I don't think the bouble will pop nearly as fast or as hard.

While I see the point that the Treasury Bubble is overinflated, I do not believe that it will pop nearly as fast or as hard as the tech or the real estate bubble did. The main reason why I think this is because unlike the tech and real estate, the government is in charge of the treasury bubble and they have the power to give incentives to purchase treasury bonds such as tax exemptions to encourage investors to buy their bonds without having to increase the interest rates too drastically. This ability to crate incentives I believe will prevent the treasury bubble from creating quite such a drastic collapse.

Treasury bubble

Bonds are low risk and many are gerantied so there is little consern that people will not get their money. Un-like the tech market which was high risk and many people lost all their money. The main risk in bonds is a rise in inflation causing a loss on investment but you will still have something. However it could have a bad effect on the US government as a whole, exspecialy if people lose faith in bonds and stop investing in them.

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