How Risky Is It, Really?

Why our fears don't always match the facts.

Angry Rhetoric is a Response to Uncertainty and Fear

Talk of toning down the talk misses the point...We're WORRIED!

      The commentary that got most of the attention last week, whether the violence-laden vitriol of what passes for discussion of current affairs is to blame for the shootings in Arizona, misses a far more profound issue. Why is that discourse so vitriolic in the first place, so hate-filled, so laden with references to ‘second amendment remedies' and crosshairs and bulls-eyes and targeting and hoping opponents might die. Beyond just calling for cooler talk, we need to understand the underlying causes of the venom if we want to move away from the destructive antipathy that is eating away at society, and doing nobody any good (except, of course, those who spew for money or political gain).


      Research into the perception of risk suggests that lack of control, and uncertainty, make us feel threatened and worried. Lord knows that in this risky world and shaky economy and growing class divide with richer haves and far more have-nots, there are plenty of people, across the political spectrum, who are uncertain and worried. And there are plenty of people who feel they have less and less control over the lives, because of bigger government, or the ever more overcrowded marketplace with its increasingly fierce competition for jobs and homes and material success, or global environmental threats none of us alone can do anything about. When we feel threatened like this, we do try to find ways to reassert control, because control makes us feel safe.

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      One of the common reactions among people who are afraid and under attack, is to circle the wagons. We modify the positions we take and the opinions we hold so they are more consistent with the beliefs of the group...the tribe...with which we identify. And our positions get more black and white, and we fight for them more fiercely and, in extreme cases, violently. This is an instinctive way to make ourselves feel safe, because we are social animals and we literally depend on our group...our tribe...for our well-being and survival. The more everyone in our group believes the same thing, and the more we establish our tribe's beliefs as dominant in society, the safer we feel.

      And we believe what the group believes, the more accepted we are by the group as members in good standing, and that feels safe too. You know how some conservatives want to impose a lithmus test on candidates who want to run as Republicans, requiring that their positions on key issues match the ‘right' position? How some further-left liberals attack President Obama for not immediately getting out of Afghanistan, or closing Guantanamo, or comprising and allowing tax breaks for the wealthy to preserve them for everybody else? One word that captures this sort of behavior is fundamentalism; strict adherence to a specific set of principles, religious or otherwise.

      This does not entirely explain the violence of Arizona, or the bombing of the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City a few years ago, or the murders of people who provide abortions, or the arson and violence of Earth First-ers or animal rights activists or anti-Globalization protesters, or the murder and mayhem of dozens of extremists of a wide range around the world, so angry and blind, and threatened, that they justify violence to impose their fundamentalist tribal beliefs. Fortunately, while many of us are worried and uncertain and circling the tribal wagons, we don't all start shooting at anybody outside the circle.


      Not with guns and bombs, anyway. But we sure are in combat with words and messages laced not only with violence and invective, but Us Against Them, polarized, closed-minded, hostile attitudes towards conservatives, or liberals, or gays, or immigrants, or Muslims...others...people outside our circle, with whom any agreement is treason to our tribe, the tribe we subconsciously rely on for safety. These are uncertain and worrisome times, for many profound reasons, and we are trying to make ourselves feel safe, in part by banding together with those like ourselves, and treating people who see things differently as the enemy.


      The challenge is not to tone down the rhetoric. The rhetoric is just a symptom. And it won't change...permanently change...until we recognize and deal with why that rhetoric is so angry in the first place. It is unfortunately pessimistic to observe, but until we feel safer and more positive about how things are going in general, the human instinct to circle the tribal wagons in the name of safety and protection will continue to feed the divisions that create closed minds and angry speech, and violent behavior, and corrode our ability to accept compromise in the name of a greater common good.

    David Ropeik is an Instructor at Harvard and author of "How Risky Is it, Really? Why Our Fears Don't Always Match the Facts"



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David Ropeik is the author of How Risky Is It, Really?, an Instructor at the Harvard University School of Continuing Education, and a risk-communication consultant.

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