How Risky Is It, Really?

Why our fears don't always match the facts.

by David Ropeik

A Startlingly Democratic Solution to the Problem of Nuclear Waste

A panel of experts advises Congress that siting a nuclear waste repository will never happen without community consent. We take risks voluntarily that we reject when they're imposed. Read More

Human Error and Hubris Sank the Costa Concordia

Amid smiles and optimism they boarded the Costa Concordia for a luxurious Mediterranean cruise, eating and drinking and planning their upcoming visits at various ports of call with little or no concern for the unimaginable risk that the massive modern ship could sink. Read More

Time to Worry About Worrying Too Much

Worrying can be really bad for our health, worse by far than some of the things we worry about. It causes the biological harms of chronic stress, which are broad and profound. Read More

The Roots and Dangers of Closed-Minded Ideological "Thinking"

Last week when the Egyptians voted in an open election for the first time in decades, having won the right to this inspirational exercise of democracy by standing up to and overthrowing their repressive government (sound familiar, America?), the result was met by some in the U.S. with disdain. Why? Because they didn't like the results. The parties that won the most seats were too Islamic. Read More

The Climate Change Winds (of Fear) May Be Shifting

Abstract risks scare us less than concrete ones. risks in the future scare us less than those which are more immediate. Extreme weather events may make climate change concern deeper and stronger and instigate action and progress. Read More

Warning: Health Warnings May Be Hazardous to Your Health

For all the benefits modern society provides, not least of which are vast improvements in public health and longevity, our advanced post-industrial technological/information age also produces risks—far too many for you and me to keep track of. We depend in part on watchdogs and advocacy groups to uncover these dangers and sound the alarm. Read More

The Tribal Roots of Team Spirit

Sports are only less violent surrogates of a basic human need: belonging to a tribe that's doing well. Read More

Conservative Hypocrisy: Big Government Is Just Fine if We're Afraid

White-hot conservative and libertarian anger at the size and intrusiveness of government is getting a lot of attention these days. It seems so fierce, so single-minded; Let the federal government default. Let the uninsured die. But two recent events in Texas illustrate how another emotion, fear, has much more influence on our views about how much government is too much. Read More

9/11 + 10: The Costs of Fear

Some of our responses to the terrorist attacks of 9/11/01 created new risks, huge risks that are the price we pay when we act out of fear. Read More

Hurricane Hype: Overreaction? Nonsense!

There was a lot of hype and excitement leading up to Storm Irene, but people did not overreact. Getting ready, and being prepared, make complete sense. Read More

Statistical Numbing: Why Millions Can Die and We Don’t Care

A single victim moves us more, emotionally, than many. Which means lack of public concern will continue to contribute to mass suffering. Read More

Cool Dudes, Hot Temps: The Climate Change Argument Isn't About the Facts

People argue about climate change facts, but the real conflict is about underlying worldviews. Which is why the argument will get us nowhere. Read More

Vaccines and Fear: It’s Time for Society to Say Enough Is Enough

The fear of vaccines has not been reduced by communication and dialogue, and is causing diseases to spread. It is time for governments to regulate the behavior of those who refuse to vaccinate themselves or their children. Read More

Toward a More Holistic Definition of "Risk"

Risk perception is subjective. Sometimes what feels right is wrong, and dangerous. We need to consider a new definition of risk, in order to make more thoughtful, healthier choices, as individuals and as a society. Read More

The Silly Storm over Storm

A Toronto couple's efforts to protect their kids from gender stereotypes, makes news, and teaches lessons. It's Nurture AND Nature, not one or other other. Read More

A Final Message from Osama bin Laden

The tribalism that drove Osama bin laden was an extreme version of a survival instinct we all share. At our peril. Read More

Cancer, Choice, Beer, and Fear

Engaging in risky behavior voluntarily makes it feel less risky. It doesn't mean the risk goes down, though, only the fear. And THAT may raise your risk! Read More

New Danger Blowing in from Japan

What is the biggest health risk from the Japanese nuclear disaster? Hint; It's not the radiation. Read More

Poor Risk Communication In Japan Makes the Fear Much Worse

There are two risks from radiation. One is the radioactivity itself, the other is fear. Mistakes with risk communication are hampering Japan's efforts to deal with the psychological effects of the nuclear crisis. Read More

Take the Cultural Cognition Quiz

Our positions and views are based in part on the facts, but even more on our underlying drive to survive by being a loyal member of the tribe. Read More

Why the Jubilation in Egypt Resonates Universally

As a resident of Concord Massachusetts, where American revolutionaries first shot back at their British oppressors, its impossible to watch what's going on in Egypt and not feel a connection with the people who have taken considerable risk to stand up for a better life. We are told that their reasons are poverty, fear, and repression. Read More

SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW!!!

Forgive me, but this has nothing to do with risk percepton. Annoyance maybe. Frustration, anxiety...I guess it could have a lot to do with psychology. Certainly sore backs and missed work and long commutes. But mostly it's just a fun little riff on a snowy winter, the bad AND the good. With apologies to Robert Frost, enjoy. Read More

Is Fear the Best Way to Keep Ourselves Safe?

The government does a Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) of most big proposed regulations, to see if they're worth it...if the benefits are greater than the costs. They compare the dollar cost of the regulation against the benefits, measured by the number of lives the regulation is expected to save. Read More

Angry Rhetoric is a Response to Uncertainty and Fear

The Arizona shootings focused attention on angry rhetoric, but not its cause. We're worried, uncertain, and turning angry and tribal to establish a feeling of control and safety. Read More

Why Do We Keep Predicting The Future If We Are So Often WRONG?

Welcome to 2011. Here we are, on the cutting edge of genetically personalized medicine and cars that can fly and artificial life forms made in the lab and... Wait a minute. Haven't all those things been predicted for years? Aren't they supposed to be here already? Well, yeah. Which begs two questions. Why not? And, why do we keep trying to predict the future when we are so often wrong? Read More

The Year of Fear, in Review

A look at the psychology of our perception of risk, through some of the high profile (and not so high profile) risks we encountered in 2010. Read More

PHEW! One Bogeyman Finally OFF the List!

Some interesting risk stories in the news lately. The U.S. is planning for how to respond if (when?) terrorists detonate a nuclear bomb in America. Investigators in the Pacific Northwest have found yet another severed foot washed up on the shore, the 10th in the last couple years. Read More

Fear Makes Us Tribal, and Stupid. Case in Point, Rush Limbaugh

When we are worried, as many of us are these days, we are more likely to conform our thinking and behavior to fit in with the group. Which means that, in worrying times, divisions between groups grow sharper, and the likelihood of compromise to solve the big problems we all face, gets further away. Read More

The TSA, Whole Body Scans, and Risk Perception.

Resistance is growing to an airport security technology that could keep us safe. Why does having our privacy invaded feel worse to some than the possibility we might get blown up? Read More

What the Recent Elections Were Really About; Worry and Uncertainty

The recent American elections show how strongly people feel. But they're not angry. They're worried, and uncertain, and the response to that is always to seek some sense of control. The politicians and policies of the moment take the blame, but rejecting them is about something much deeper. Read More

David Ropeik is the author of How Risky Is It, Really?, an Instructor at the Harvard University School of Continuing Education, and a risk-communication consultant.

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About How Risky Is It, Really?

We are sometimes too afraid of lesser risks, and not afraid enough of bigger ones, and getting risk wrong can be a risk all by itself. Research from several fields of science explain this apparently irrational behavior. These insights, offered here in the context of current issues which supply a constant source of real-life examples, can help us understand ourselves and our risk decision making, and that can help us make healthier choices about risks for ourselves and for society.