We're going to be more constructive right now by doing something similar to what we did with Dr. Phil. The situation is the same here as it was with him: I don't have room to evaluate every aspect (nor, unfortunately, even a slim minority) of Oprah's "gospel," the centerpiece of which seems to have something to do with redemption through positive thinking. Instead, we will vet one of her more restricted claims in light of research in psychological science. Some of you will feel comfortable inferring from our analysis an overall evaluation of her, others may not. To each his own; I always encourage further investigation on your part.

The claim we'll evaluate can be found in O Magazine: "As you become more clear about who you really are, you'll be better able to decide what is best for you - the first time around." This remark is ideally suited to a psychological analysis, which we'll proceed with right now.

"As you become more clear about who you really are"... In other words, as you gain more certitude regarding your specific personal qualities (e.g., I am intelligent, but not very attractive) and abilities (e.g., I can write well, but probably shouldn't enter a beauty contest), etc. We'll call this sort of certainty self-concept clarity. So, as you achieve greater-and-greater self-concept clarity, then what Oprah? Then, "...you'll be better able to decide what is best for you - the first time around." Ok, fair enough.

If you think hard about this claim, you will hopefully see that it is by no means uncontroversial. It is a big jump to assume that people's subjective sense of confidence in their beliefs about their own character and abilities - their self-concept clarity - corresponds in the least bit with reality. Just think of your asshole, idiot boss who really does in fact think that he's always the smartest guy in the room; he's got high self-concept clarity. Hence, he has what Oprah claims will lead to better decisions on his part. Or, consider your depressed cousin, who really believes that she's a worthless person. She also has high self-concept clarity. Isn't it better to hold tentative rather than certain self-beliefs, especially if those beliefs are inaccurate?

Right about now you're probably bracing yourself for a lampoon, but that's not exactly where I see us going here. This is because, whether by dumb luck or "divine" insight, Oprah basically has it right, at least half right. There is no denying that the data support her position on the utility of having high self-concept clarity. The reality is that it is better for us to hold our self-beliefs firmly rather than tentatively, even if those beliefs are ultimately spurious half-truths or outright falsifications of reality (as they often are).

This is supported by studies (e.g., Campbell et al., 1996; Smith, Wethington, & Zhan, 1994) showing that self-concept clarity is positively associated with a whole host of beneficial outcomes, e.g., self-esteem, conscientiousness, agreeableness, and active coping styles, and negatively associated with a number of negative outcomes (neuroticism and rumination to name just a couple). Whether, as Oprah claims, high self-concept clarity actually causes people to make better decisions is as yet unclear but, as noted above, it is associated with active coping styles; in other words with proactive efforts to clear hurdles in one's life. This sounds like at least one important component involved in being "better able to decide what is best for you - the first time around," doesn't it?

So, Oprah's claim survives scientific scrutiny, which goes towards bolstering her credibility. When I first planned to write about Oprah, I honestly didn't expect to say very many positive things. Through the informal research that I undertook to write this post, I have now come to feel differently. Even if, as the article I quoted at the outset ("The Divine Miss Winfrey") maintains, there is a slightly religious tone evoked by her ministrations, I nevertheless feel that the substance of her basic message is right on target: Forget about the blunders and miscalculations of yesterday; today is a new day and a new opportunity to improve yourself and your condition.

Her position is actually in one important sense quite areligious (at least according to the Judeo-Christian tradition) in that it categorically denies the value of guilt as a means to vindicate our past failures and mistakes. Instead, it's necessary to move forward hopefully rather than look backward ashamedly. At its very best, the Judeo-Christian religious ideal entails doing both. But as Oprah put it: "Cheers to a new year and another chance for us to get it right."

What a relief. My new positive attitude already has me feeling great, LOL, as well as inclined to enjoin "The Depraved Miss Schlussel" to reconsider her ill-informed outburst.

 Ted Cascio is co-editor of House & Psychology (John Wiley & Sons).

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