This gripping video (via Gawker) depicts a group of young Russian men attempting to drive through one of the wildfires currently raging across their country. Fortunately, they survived -- though, it seems, just barely, thanks to a timely decision on the driver's part.
If you found yourself in that situation, how would you react? If unexpectedly found yourself in a life-or-death crisis and had to make a decision that would either save your life or end it, how can you ensure that you would make the right one?
That was not a rhetorical question for people in the state of Victoria, Australia, during February and March, 2009. For five weeks catastrophic brush fires swept across the state amid record-breaking temperatures and drought. Government policy held that when fire threatened a neighborhood, homeowners were to make a choice: either stay and fight to save their houses, or evacuate early. They were explicitly instructed not to wait until the flames were close. Trying to run from a wildfire is the surest way to die in it.
The choice given to the people made sense in strictly rational terms. But can people be expected to make rational decisions when they're surrounded by 1200 degree flames raging four stories high? Shortly after the Victoria fire's most lethal day, I talked to a survivor and heard his incredible story, which I included in Extreme Fear. Here's an excerpt:
EVERYONE IN Melbourne knew that Saturday, February 7 was going to be brutal. The southern summer had been a scorcher, with temperatures the previous week climbing above 110 degrees three days and a row. That day the mercury was forecast to climb even higher. Winds were strong and a long drought had left the vegetation, setting the stage for the most dangerous fire conditions ever recorded.
In Glenburn, a farming community outside the city, Victoria University professor Ian Thomas spent that Saturday listening for weather updates on the radio. As an engineer, Thomas specialized in calculating the risk of fire in buildings, so he had a healthy appreciation for the dangers of wildfire. His house and lawn were surrounded by trees on all side and abutted the eucalyptus forest of Kinglake National Park, which stretched uphill from his front yard. Each summer, fire became a real and present danger.
On this day, in particular, he was careful to check that the sprinkler system on his roof was in good working order, and that the casks of water that he had positioned around the property were full. "We didn't need the forecast to tell us that it was dangerous," he says, "because when you walked around on the grass, the grass was crisp under your feet, and when you walked in the bush the leaves crackled. It was obvious that everything was extremely dry."
As it turned out, the weather report was off: the maximum temperature that afternoon in Melbourne wasn't the predicted 111 degrees, but 115, the highest temperature in more than 150 years of record-keeping. The government put out a "Total Fire Ban" alert, which forbid not only the lighting of fires, but the use of any mechanical equipment, such as angle grinders, that could cause sparks. But all the precautions in the world would offer scant protection given that a single spark ignited anywhere in hundreds of square miles of bone-dry bush would be enough to set off a catastrophe. In the event, it didn't take long. Around 11 o'clock that morning, high winds knocked down a power line that ran through pasture 25 miles to the northwest of Glenburn. Within hours, a roaring wall of flames was burning eastward.
Thomas wasn't concerned the reports of the fire that he heard over the radio. Given past experience, the outbreak was too far away to pose a danger. A few years before, a fire had started in the national park forest behind the Thomas' house, and burned for a week without getting closer than half a mile.
Around 4pm, the scorching heatwave suddenly broke, as the fierce, dry northern wind swung around 180 degrees and became a cooler sea breeze. Within minutes the mercury dropped 30 degrees, to a relatively balmy 86. "We started to relax," Thomas says, "because we thought that things were looking pretty good. Nothing big had happened, and that it was likely that there wasn't going to be a major problem." Soon after, the power went out. Fifteen minutes later it came back on, then died again.
What the radio news broadcasts had failed to report was that the wildfire had spread all the way to the town of Kingslake, less than ten miles from the Thomas' house. The new, cool breeze had fanned the flames to new intensity, and was driving the fire towards Glenburn at freight-train speeds.
The first inkling of trouble came when a couple who lived nearby, Lou and Cheryl Newstead, pulled into the driveway. They brought news that their son had just called to tell them that the fire was heading their way. As the couples talked the wind that was blowing in from the south darkened with smoke. Ash and glowing embers started dropping out of the air.
"We went from not having any particular worries to having fire in our immediate vicinity very quickly," Thomas recalls. The decision point -- stay or go -- had arrived faster than anyone had anticipated. The neighbors decided to evacuate; the Thomases, to stay and defend. "My thinking was that they were foolish in driving off in that situation," says Thomas. "They didn't know what they were driving into."
But his own situation was scarcely better. With the power out, the fire on their door, the Thomases were cut off and entirely on their own. What they would not find out until much later was that the fire that was racing towards them had already become the deadliest single blaze in Australian history.
The wind shift two hours before had turned the Kilmore blaze's wall of flame and sent it racing to the northeast, up through a steeply sloping eucalyptus forest toward the community of Kinglake. Strong wind, steep terrain, and tinder-dry, oily eucalyptus combined to form the deadliest kind of wildfire, an incendiary chain reaction called a blowup. As heat bakes a tree past its flashpoint, its volatile gases blend with atmospheric oxygen and ignite almost instantaneously, causing the trees to explode in flame. The intensity of the energy released creates a powerful vortex of air that feeds it with fresh oxygen, sucking in cool air and spewing it upwards in a chimney that can pierce the stratosphere. The fire exploded up the ridge at speeds that topped 80 mph.
Hardest hit was a tidy neighborhood of homes along Pine Ridge Road, where a triangle of land was flanked on two sides by steep slopes. Topography that once provided fine views over the southern plain now exposed the community to being overrun by fire from two directions at once. The entire community was caught unawares. There was no time to contemplate the options.
Rob Richings, a service technician, decided to make a run for it once the windows of his house started to explode from the heat. "It's against the rules, but this wasn't a normal bush fire," he later told a reporter. As it was, he managed to drive through the flames and reach safety. Many others did not. Disoriented in the smoke, cars crashed into one another on the jammed road. Flames melted tires and exploded fuel tanks. In one car, six people died together when their vehicle was consumed by flames.
Staying put was just as much a gamble. Another neighbor, Tina Wilson, decided to stay, taking her three children over to the nearby home of Paul and Karen Roland, who were holed up with their two daughters. "The house has got sprinklers on the roof and we'll be fine," Wilson told her partner over the telephone. "I'll call you soon." A few minutes later, Karen Roland phoned with her sister. "It's too late," she yelled over the roar of the fire. "We're trapped." All nine perished within the burning walls.
Within 30 minutes, the conflagration had passed over the town and moved on. By the time the fire was burning its way through to the Thomas' treeline, 70 people were already dead.
