Are you a good driver? Of course you are. Everyone is! In our own minds, that is.
You know how all of the children in Lake Wobegon are above average? Studies show that almost everyone rates their driving as above average. And it's not just driving. We all think we're better than average in all sorts of ways.
Abundant research points to one conclusion: You are overconfident. But I know what you're thinking. "Yeah, maybe so. But I AM a good driver." Guess what? Not thinking that you're overconfident is the essence of being overconfident.
This is not the author's baby. It is a "prop."
This week I had a new baby. Well, actually, my wife deserves a lot of the credit. When the nurse told us he weighed in at 7 lbs, 1 oz, my immediate thought was that his birthweight would be etched in my brain forever. Then I realized that I couldn't remember how much my previous child weighed when she was born.
Big deal, right? We forget stuff. Everyone knows that. What's interesting is that at one time I was 100% sure I would never forget that weight. I was overconfident in my memory.
Predicted memory
Why do people make a list before they go shopping? If you said "duh," then you're in for a surprise.
New research suggests that overconfidence gets worse as time goes on, for a surprising reason: People don't think they're going to forget. Sure, if you ask someone "do you forget stuff" they'll say yes. But things change when you make the question slightly less overt.
For example, in one study participants were asked to learn word pairs. One group was asked how many pairs they would be able to remember in 10 minutes. Another group was asked how many words they'd remember in a week. Of course, people who were tested in 10 minutes remembered far more words. But the two groups' predictions were virtually the same. They acted like they wouldn't forget.
Different amounts of change in predicted vs. actual memory produce long-term overconfidence
Long-term overconfidence
The farther in the future you'll have to remember something, the more overconfident you are likely to be now.
Long-term overconfidence can be a serious problem for students. If today is Friday, and you feel ready for the test you have to take on Monday, don't take the weekend off. You might be right--maybe you are ready now. But that doesn't mean you'll still be ready by Monday. In fact, you're likely to be way overconfident.
So when you learn something new, and want to remember it in the future, try to remember two things. Remember what you are trying to remember. Then remember that trying to remember something in the future is a lot harder than it seems. Don't trust your memory.
If someone asks you if you can remember something, say no. Write it down. Tell a friend. Figure out some way to "offload" the information to your environment. This is particularly important when you're remembering something like a name or a date, because they are basically arbitrary. The more arbitrary information is, the harder it is to remember.
Any readers out there have any good stories about things you unexpectedly forgot? Did you think you'd never be one of those people who forgot your anniversary, but then you did, etc? Let's hear about it!
Follow me on Twitter @natekornell.
