Could there be a middle ground on this issue? If I have a presentation to give, for instance, and assume the worst (that I'll bomb), I may sabotage myself - there'd be no point in preparing, because I'd expect to bomb. However, on the other hand, if I expected the best (that I'll fly through it), I may underestimate the difficulty involved, not prepare sufficiently, and bomb.
Would it be better to enter a situation with a realistic assessment of the likely outcome, recognize that one could fail (without overinflating the meaning of the failure), and use that recognition as a spur to prepare?
Maybe we could convince Mr. Gilbert and company to desing a study?

At least for me the biggest reason I think of the worst possible outcome is it lets me plan much better about how to deal with that bad outcome. It also motivates me to prevent that negative outcome from happening.

Yes, good point. This sort of planning is known as defensive pessimism and it can be a productive way to plan, cope and motivate action. The thing is, this study does demonstrate that it doesn't make us feel better later, and the cost of motivating ourselves this way is a great deal of stress/unhappiness in anticipation of the event. That's the difference between avoiding failure versus approaching success.
Thanks for the comment,
tim

When a person is hammering a nail, and accidentally hits their thumb, they may become angry and shout an expletive, even if no one is nearby. Is that irrational? I would say that feeling bad about future events is the same way, in that they're both primarily driven by our emotions. We're "programmed" to feel this way probably because it makes us more successful, not because it makes us happier or more stress-free. Furthermore, you say "it can be a productive way to plan, cope and motivate action" which means it's not irrational at all.

But! I certainly enjoy reading your blog, and this post was particularly informative. It's good to know that defensive pessimism will not make us happier, and to be conscious of our own emotional tendencies. I just wouldn't call it irrational; that's all.

Hi,
If I hit my thumb with a hammer and shout out in pain, I agree, that may be considered an "expected" emotional response. I don't think it has anything to do with "rationality." In contrast, thinking about the potential negative event is a thought process, not an emotional reaction, necessarily, and given that it creates unnecessary suffering because all of these thoughts are based on imagined (not real) events, it can be considered irrational.

Yes, I do acknowledge that people can harness their propensity to fear the worse to motivate them, but I think this is a less desirable and less rational position than working towards success (not avoiding failure).

I'm glad you like the blog. I appreciate your comments. You're certainly not alone in challenging my use of "irrationality," and I'll write about this more specifically in a future post.
thanks,
tim