Decisions, Decisions

Not What to Decide, but How
Dan Goldstein is Assistant Professor at London Business School and Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research. See full bio

Was choosing Sarah Palin a good decision or a bad decision?

Was Sarah Palin a good or bad VP pick?

This week, a completely unscientific and undoubtedly flawed investigation of whether Sarah Palin was a good or bad pick for VP.

(Disclaimer: This is just for fun. I'd have to think long and hard about how to do such a thing the proper way.)

We should first check for a bias in our sources to find "good decision" more or less than often than "bad decision":

Search Engine: Google.com

"bad decision" = 1,450,000
"good decision" = 1,850,000
Good to bad ratio: 1.28

"bad choice" = 1,960,000
"good choice" = 12,700,000
Good to bad ratio: 6.48

Search Engine: Google blog search (blogsearch.google.com)

"bad decision" = 170,606
"good decision" = 232,560
Good to bad ratio: 1.36

"bad choice" =  232,637
"good choice" = 1,747,694
Good to bad ratio:7.51

Search Engine: Yahoo.com

"bad decision" = 3,920,000
"good decision" = 5,920,000
Good to bad ratio: 1.51

"bad choice" = 4,920,000
"good choice" = 34,500,000
Good to bad ratio: 7.01

Search Engine: Technorati.com

"bad decision" = 3,325
"good decision"= 4,680
Good to bad ratio=1.40

"bad choice" = 3,567
"good choice" = 19,466
Good to bad ratio: 5.46

So, on the wild, wild Web, there are 1.3-1.5 times more good decisions than bad ones. And, there are 5-8 times more good choices than bad ones. The good gets more hits than the bad, no question. What a positive world we live in.

Next we'll combine these basic terms with "Sarah Palin" and "Palin":

Search Engine: Google.com

"sarah palin" AND "bad decision" = 1,880
"sarah palin" AND "good decision" = 1,980
Good to bad ratio: 1.05

"bad decision" AND +palin    3,270
"good decision" AND +palin    3,340
Good to bad ratio:    1.02

"sarah palin" "bad choice" = 8,610
"sarah palin" "good choice" = 22,700
Good to bad ratio: 2.64

"bad choice" AND +palin    12,200
"good choice" AND +palin    35,200
Good to bad ratio:    2.89

Search Engine: Google blog search (blogsearch.google.com)

"sarah palin" AND "bad decision" = 48
"sarah palin" AND "good decision" = 47
Good to bad ratio: .98

"bad decision" AND +palin    76
"good decision" AND +palin    87
Good to bad ratio:    1.14

"sarah palin" "bad choice" = 365
"sarah palin" "good choice" = 507
Good to bad ratio: 1.39

"bad choice" AND +palin    428
"good choice" AND +palin    1261
Good to bad ratio:    2.95

 Search Engine: Yahoo.com

"sarah palin" "bad decision" = 2,680
"sarah palin" "good decision" = 6460
Good to bad ratio:2.41

"bad decision"  palin    13,200
"good decision"  palin    17,000
Good to bad ratio:    1.29

"sarah palin" "bad choice" = 85,700
"sarah palin" "good choice" = 239,000
Good to bad ratio: 2.79

"bad choice" palin    111,000
"good choice" palin    354,000
Good to bad ratio:    3.19

Search Engine: Technorati.com

"sarah palin" "bad decision" = 9
"sarah palin" "good decision" =8
Good to bad ratio:.89

"bad decision"  palin    26
"good decision"  palin    19
Good to bad ratio:    0.73

"sarah palin" "bad choice" =48
"sarah palin" "good choice" =103
Good to bad ratio: 2.14

"bad choice" palin    113
"good choice" palin    246
Good to bad ratio:    2.18

In sum, for "decisions" the overall good-to-bad ratio is about 1.4, and Sarah Palin's ratios are 1.05, 1.02, .98, 1.14, 2.41, 1.29, .89 and .73.

For "choices" the overall good-to-bad ratio is about 6.6, and Sarah Palin's ratios are 2.64, 2.89, 1.39, 2.95, 2.79, 3.19, 2.14, and 2.18

Now let's do Joe Biden. I'll try "Joe Biden" and "Biden" and "Joseph Biden".

Search Engine: Google.com

"bad decision" AND "joe biden"    7990
"good decision" AND "joe biden"    8770
Good to bad ratio:    1.10

"bad decision" AND "biden"    10800
"good decision" AND "biden"    11900
Good to bad ratio:    1.10

"bad decision" AND  "joseph biden"    829
"good decision" AND "joseph biden"    986
Good to bad ratio:    1.19

"bad choice" AND "joe biden"    26,000
"good choice" AND "joe biden"    73,200
Good to bad ratio:    2.82

"bad choice" AND "biden"    33200
"good choice" AND "biden"    207000
Good to bad ratio:    6.23

"bad choice" AND "joseph biden"    2,520
"good choice" AND  "joseph biden"    11,200
Good to bad ratio:    4.44

Search Engine: Google blog search (blogsearch.google.com)

"bad decision" AND "joe biden"    26
"good decision" AND "joe biden"    58
Good to bad ratio:    2.23

"bad decision" AND "biden"    112
"good decision" AND "biden"    205
Good to bad ratio:    1.83

"bad decision" AND  "joseph biden"    7
"good decision" AND "joseph biden"    19
Good to bad ratio:    2.71

"bad choice" AND "joe biden"    448
"good choice" AND "joe biden"    1,353
Good to bad ratio:    3.02

"bad choice" AND "biden"    593
"good choice" AND "biden"    3008
Good to bad ratio:    5.07

"bad choice" AND "joseph biden"    15
"good choice" AND  "joseph biden"    221
Good to bad ratio:    14.73

Search Engine: Yahoo.com

"bad decision"  "joe biden"    26,900
"good decision" "joe biden"    28,300
Good to bad ratio:    1.05

"bad decision" biden    111,000
"good decision" biden    107000
Good to bad ratio:    0.96

"bad decision"  "joseph biden"    1550
"good decision"  "joseph biden"    2050
Good to bad ratio:    1.32

"bad choice"  "joe biden"    273,000
"good choice"  "joe biden"    871,000
Good to bad ratio:    3.19
   
"bad choice" "biden"    358,000
"good choice" "biden"    1,640,000
Good to bad ratio:    4.58

"bad choice"  "joseph biden"    8,760
"good choice"  "joseph biden"    75,100
Good to bad ratio:    8.57

Search Engine: Technorati.com

"bad decision"  "joe biden"    9
"good decision" "joe biden"    19
Good to bad ratio:    2.11

"bad decision" biden    19
"good decision" biden    28
Good to bad ratio:    1.47

"bad decision"  "joseph biden"    0
"good decision"  "joseph biden"    1
Good to bad ratio:    Can't be computed!

"bad choice"  "joe biden"    58
"good choice"  "joe biden"    154
Good to bad ratio:    2.66

"bad choice" "biden"    117
"good choice" "biden"    328
Good to bad ratio:    2.80

"bad choice"  "joseph biden"    4
"good choice"  "joseph biden"    13
Good to bad ratio:    3.25

In sum, for "decisions" the overall good-to-bad ratio is about 1.4, and Biden's ratios are:1.1, 1.1,  1.19, 2.23, 1.83, 2.71, 1.05, .96, 1.32, 2.11 and 1.47

For "choices" the overall good-to-bad ratio is about 6.6, and Biden's ratios are: 2.82, 6.23, 4.44, 3.02, 5.07, 14.73, 3.19, 4.58, 8.57, 2.66, 2.80 and 3.25

Overall, for "decisions" Palin's median Good-to-bad ratio is 1 to Biden's 1.3. 



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