Decisions, Decisions

Not What to Decide, but How

Sarah Palin vs Joe Biden: Round Two

Were Sarah Palin and Joe Biden good VP picks? Round Two!

Last time, we looked at whether the Internet thought that Sarah Palin and Joe Biden were considered good or bad choices. This week, the completely unscientific and undoubtedly flawed investigation continues as we look at how things stand 25 days later.

 (Disclaimer: This is just for fun. I'd have to think long and hard about how to do such a thing the proper way.)

Our basic approach is similar to that in the first round. We establish two baseline ratios, the "good decision" to "bad decision" ratio and the "good choice" to "bad choice" ratio, by searching for those phrases on Google and Google blog search. We find that the phrase "good decision" appears about 1.3 times more often than "bad decision" and "good choice" appears a stunning 7.3 times more often than "bad choice". It's a rather positive Internet out there.

Next we check to see how often Web pages and blog posts use the names of the VP candidates along with the phrases "good decision", "bad decision", "good choice" and "bad choice". To be a bit more careful than last time, we filter out results that mention the opposing candidate. So, for example, we'd count all the Web pages that say "Sarah Palin" and "good decision" but do not mention Joe Biden. We do this so that we can be a bit more confident about whom the post or page is about. Since I'm lazy, I'll just use Google.

Here are the results of the queries. Skip to the end for the summary stats.

Sarah Palin

Search Engine: Google.com

"sarah palin" AND "bad decision" -biden    7260
"sarah palin" AND "good decision" -biden    3960
Good-to-bad ratio    0.55

"bad decision" AND +palin   -biden    39900
"good decision" AND +palin  -biden    30000
Good-to-bad ratio    0.75

"sarah palin" AND "bad choice" -biden    13000
"sarah palin" AND "good choice" -biden    30200
Good-to-bad ratio    2.32

"bad choice" AND +palin  -biden    97200
"good choice" AND +palin  -biden    369000
Good-to-bad ratio    3.80

Search Engine: Google blog search (blogsearch.google.com)    

"sarah palin" AND "bad decision" -biden    201
"sarah palin" AND "good decision" -biden    129
Good-to-bad ratio    0.64

"bad decision" AND +palin   -biden    1221
"good decision" AND +palin  -biden    371
Good-to-bad ratio    0.30

"sarah palin" AND "bad choice" -biden    224
"sarah palin" AND "good choice" -biden    1321
Good-to-bad ratio    5.90

"bad choice" AND +palin  -biden    2090
"good choice" AND +palin  -biden    4918
Good-to-bad ratio    2.35

 Joe Biden

Search Engine: Google.com   

"bad decision" AND "joe biden"  AND -palin    4110
"good decision" AND "joe biden"  AND -palin    586
Good-to-bad ratio    0.14

"bad decision" AND +biden AND -palin    4500
"good decision" AND +biden AND -palin    5690
Good-to-bad ratio    1.26

"bad choice" AND "joe biden"  AND -palin    11600
"good choice" AND "joe biden"  AND -palin    39600
Good-to-bad ratio    3.41

"bad choice" AND "biden"  AND -palin    13900
"good choice" AND "biden"  AND -palin    50800
Good-to-bad ratio    3.65

Search Engine: Google blog search (blogsearch.google.com)   

"bad decision" AND "joe biden"  AND -palin    40
"good decision" AND "joe biden"  AND -palin    101
Good-to-bad ratio    2.53

"bad decision" AND +biden AND -palin    94
"good decision" AND +biden AND -palin    169
Good-to-bad ratio    1.80

"bad choice" AND "joe biden"  AND -palin    276
"good choice" AND "joe biden"  AND -palin    1278
Good-to-bad ratio    4.63
   
"bad choice" AND "biden"  AND -palin    406
"good choice" AND "biden"  AND -palin    2139
Good-to-bad ratio    5.27

Results

Competition I: "Good decision" to "bad decision" ratio

Palin's scores are: .55, .75, .64, .3 for an average of .56

Biden's scores are:   .14, 1.26, 2.53, 1.8 for an average of 1.43

 

Competition II: "Good choice" to "bad choice" ratio

Palin's scores are: 2.32, 3.8, 5.9, 2.35 for an average of 3.59

Biden's scores are: 3.41, 3.65, 4.63, 5.27 for an average of 4.24

 

Biden edges out Palin in both competitions, which is the same result as last time.

It will be interesting to see how these figures will change as the election draws near. Also amusing will be the 20/20 hindsight that will emerge when the election is over.



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Dan Goldstein is Assistant Professor at London Business School and Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research.

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