Decisions, Decisions

Not What to Decide, but How

Dan Goldstein is Assistant Professor at London Business School and Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research. See full bio

May 28, 2008, Behavioral Economics

Comments on "How good are you at finding what's best? Test your intution and brains."

How good are you at finding what's best? Test your intution and brains.

By Dan Goldstein on May 28, 2008 in Decisions, Decisions

Good decision makers often wind up with the best things available. But how do they do they do it? Finding the best thing involves searching, but it also involves knowing when to stop searching. How good a searcher are you? Do you search too much, or just the right amount? Play this little game and find out.

Problem Underdetermined

Submitted by michael Webster on May 28, 2008 - 4:29pm.

Dan; we need to know how many boxes are in the room. One box is easy, two boxes not so hard, etc.

BTW, I don't think that these algebraic exercises dressed up in fanciful thought experiments show much more than most of us cannot calculate.

As an application of real life sequential choice, this fails to illuminate the difficulties.

Hi Michael, For a version of

Submitted by Dan Goldstein on May 29, 2008 - 12:51am.

Hi Michael, For a version of the game with the number of boxes specified, try the version at this link: http://tinyurl.com/6z9zop More discussion of the other points to come ... best, Dan

Induction

Submitted by michael Webster on June 4, 2008 - 5:25pm.

I have revised my opinion of this exercise after playing it.

I can see an important point could be being made - but I don't want to spoil for other people who are trying out the game.

Rescue?

Submitted by Becky on May 29, 2008 - 9:55am.

Without knowing the number of boxes, I guess my main question would be, Is there a time limit, and can others come rescue us or must we be set free on our own?

If we are simply biding our time I would never stop. I would open a box, say I wished to open more but take my own sweet ass time doing so. This would maybe buy me some time for rescue.

If I had to be set free on my own, I would study the doctor for reactions. We know he is "evil" so he might give something away if I were to come across the right box.

Ha

Submitted by Dan Goldstein on May 30, 2008 - 2:58am.

Ok, I didn't think of the biding one's time strategy. Points for creativity! But let's say you'll get the axe if you take too long, and it would be easy to open them all up in an afternoon. BTW, Interesting that you switched the word "doctor" for "dictator" :)

whoops

Submitted by Becky on June 2, 2008 - 10:16am.

Whoops. Didn't realize I substituted "doctor" for "dictator". Weird. Not sure what that says. My dad is a doctor and raised me with dictatorship style. He wasn't abusive, and very loving in many ways, but I bet that had something to do with my word slip. Interesting.

THANKS! I FIGURED OUT TO BE A SURVIVOR.

Submitted by QM on June 6, 2008 - 12:22pm.

THANKS! I FIGURED OUT TO BE A SURVIVOR WITHOUT GETTING INVOLVED IN THİS GAME; THERE IS NO RULE ENABLING THE DICTATOR TO KILL IF I WENT OPENING ALL THE BOXES WITHOUT EVER SAYING STOP.

REFERRING TO MY MESSAGE ABOVE

Submitted by QM on June 6, 2008 - 12:37pm.

DEAR DAN, RULES ARE BUILT ON BINARY THINKING.
THE PRINCIPLE IS STILL - BETTER NOT GET INVOLVED IN DICTATORS' GAMES! BEST WISHES

I'd Do This

Submitted by Shamrock on June 25, 2008 - 12:45pm.

Beforehand, I would likely put a mental number in my head and shoot for opening that specific amount of boxes. I am a very systematic person, so likely the only way I'd secondguess myself is if I came across an exorbitant amount of money before my lucky number of boxes (in my head) was reached.