Recently my wife and I decided to play tourist in New York (where we live) and we took a short taxi-boat trip around the southern tip of Manhattan. As our taxi-boat was returning to the South Street Seaport, the “captain” on our boat called on his radio to alert a “security breach”. A small privately-owned sailboat with three people was getting “too close” to the dock area near the Financial District and a police speedboat quickly stopped them, boarded the boat, and tugged the sailboat away. I was impressed with the speed and professionalism that was used by these seaport police---but I wondered to what extent a sailboat manned by confused out-of-towners wearing Orvis shirts and Polo caps was a threat to the security of lower Manhattan. Probably all of us have been frightened at one time or another by the threat of terrorism. I know I have. I remember being rudely awakened from my naivete in 2001. We had arrived in Istanbul, Turkey on 9-11-2001 for a European conference on psychology. I was in our hotel room and I was watching International CNN as the second plane hit the World Trade Center building. I thought that the Third World War must have begun. Later that day, walking around Istanbul with our friend Philip from London, we learned how others have dealt with the threat of terrorism. Philip, always a voice of wisdom and perspective, consoled us by telling us that we (as Americans) have been somewhat innocent in our experience of terrorism. The Brits have been dealing with the IRA for decades. “We just learn to deal with the odds---and the odds are in our favor.” Similarly, our Israeli colleagues at the conference knew what it was like to be living in a world with the threat of terrorism. I was told that Israeli college students worry more about getting a good job than about being blown up by a terrorist bomb.
But we do worry about terrorism. During the last few years the threat of terrorism—or the issue of “national security”—has loomed large on the political horizon. We keep imagining terrorists armed with nuclear weapons blowing up midtown Manhattan. We have images in our minds of terrorists planting a dirty bomb and contaminating a major metropolitan area. To further reinforce the view that terrorism is just right around the corner, we hear continual warnings of the possibility of a terrorist coming across the border as an illegal alien determined to wreck havoc on our nation.But how many Americans have been victims of terrorism since 9-11-2001? Well, if you spend a little time you can find out that we haven’t been suffering from terrorism for quite some time. For example, if you look at the figures of “US Fatalities as a Share of Total Fatalities in 2007” (provided by the State Department, Consular Affairs) we learn that there were 22,666 non-US fatalities and only 19 US fatalities (17 in Iraq and 2 in Afghanistan) in that year.
Now, to put this in perspective, let’s look at the figures provided by the Center for Disease Control for 2005. What are the leading causes of death in the USA?
Deaths/Mortality
- Number of deaths: 2,448,017
- Heart disease: 652,091
- Cancer: 559,312
- Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 143,579
- Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 130,933
- Accidents (unintentional injuries): 117,809
- Diabetes: 75,119
- Alzheimer's disease: 71,599
- Influenza/Pneumonia: 63,001
- Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 43,901
It might help to put things in perspective that the CDC also estimated that obesity is responsible for 112,000 deaths per year. And, to quote more from the CDC, “Each year, more than 400,000 Americans die from cigarette smoking. In fact, one in every five deaths in the United States is smoking related. Every year, smoking kills more than 276,000 men and 142,000 women”. Certainly if we look at the diseases that account for millions of deaths, there is a close link between obesity, smoking and killer illnesses such as heart disease, cancer, stroke, and respiratory illnesses.But how many people are terrified of these likely killers?
Why don’t we use “base-rate” information---that is, “What is the likelihood of being killed by a terrorist vs. dying from cancer due to smoking?” Why do we rely on dramatic videos that show us horrible things that have almost no relevance to anything likely to happen to us? You might be more terrified if you hear that a psychotic individual tries to sneak a box-cutter through airport security---but is chased down, apprehended and placed in custody for an indeterminate period of time. But you are not likely to be terrified by the obvious (and preventable) causes of death around you every day---- fast foods, nicotine, and sedentary lifestyle. Why aren’t we terrified by the real killers? Why aren’t people running in terror, screaming, with their arms waving in the air—at the sight of a Big Mac? Aren’t the millions (billions?) of fast-food hamburgers more dangerous than the threats that we are terrified about—but can’t do anything about? We can always choose not to eat that incredible hamburger with cheese--- but we still do. Why don’t we view it as a chemical-biological weapon, snuck into this country to slowly kill so many of us? Is it because they are so delicious? Do we underestimate risks because they are fun? Is that why people are willing to engage in risky sex, dangerous eating habits, and two-packs a day? Possibly.
