It's probably not smart to predict the so-called youth vote today, but what the heck. Here goes. I'm putting the share of those under 30 voting today at less 23%. Off-year elections just don't have the same pizzaz as presidential elections, and as one college student told the New York Times on Monday, ""It's not the fad [anymore] to be politically knowledgeable and active."
[POSTSCRIPT: turnout among those under age 30 was 20%, according to a press conference this morning with Rock the Vote, CIRCLE, and League of Young Voters]
Even in the "youth quake" era of voting in 2008, voter turnout for those under 30 in the presidential election was less than 50%. Turnout for those over 30 was nearly 70%. Back in 2008, the vast majority of 18-24 year olds had not participated in political or government organizations. They had never emailed Congress about an issue, contributed to a blog related to politics, or attended a rally. The vast majority had never given money to a political campaign nor even forwarded a political video.
In fact, the only group of youth who are hyper-involved in politics are those on college campuses--a minority of American youth. Fully 70% of those under 30 who voted in the 2008 election had attended at least some college. That's where the media found the "youth vote," and that's the images that were projected to us. But in reality, it was a small, albeit vocal, group.
Why is that? Why is the youth vote largely confined to the college educated, and why are the rest so turned off by politics?
The answer is complicated, but at its core is a fundamental idea: social trust. The bedrock of voting and taking part in one's community is a deep-down belief that you can trust your fellow man not to cheat you, that you're in this together, fair and square. If you can't feel safe with someone, far better to be alone. And if you're alone, you're not building community, you're not taking part, and you're more apt to believe your voice doesn't matter. College campuses impart a sense of community. They send the message: "we care." As such they build social trust. They also provide the tools to a brighter future, and optimism and trust go hand in hand.
When social trust is lacking, like it is for a great many Americans today, the urge to vote withers. It's been withering for some time now. Social trust among youth started to slide in the mid-1980s and bottomed out a decade later. Not coincidentally, that was the era of disappearing pensions, unions, and the rise of globalization and job restructuring, and what is now called a "do it yourself" economy. It was also an era of rising materialism and widening inequality. Social trust had rebounded somewhat in recent years, although this recession is no doubt chipping away at trust again, particularly for those with the fewest credentials and least education. When the job market is dog eat dog, people don't exactly brim with trust.
Young adults go to the polls when they feel a shared sense that the world offers them opportunities and promise. When their optimism for the future sags, they see no reason to vote. "Why vote?" they ask. "My vote doesn't matter." And social trust is particularly low for those who have the least at stake--the unemployed, the poor, members of marginalized groups. Their lives are less predictable, and the issues that concern them are more often overlooked by politicians.
Beyond social trust, young voters are turned off by polarized debates. This generation is more about consensus-building and trust in government. They don't like shrill and abrasive politics. They don't like confrontation. They just don't see themselves in the rhetoric, and the divisive and cut-throat approach is not for them. And this year's politics was anything but consensus-building.
So in the end, given the hardship many young voters are feeling in today's economy (unemployment for those under 24 hangs tight at about 14% and 10% for those 25-34), and given the polarizing tone of the rhetoric, my guess is that young adults will stay away in droves.
