There's a thriving industry built on the scientific selection of jurors, but the jury is out on just how accurate it is, or whether it gives legal adversaries an edge.
By
Matthew Hutson, published on March 01, 2007 - last reviewed on May 22, 2007
"Most people really think they can set a bias aside," Patterson adds. "A certain percentage hope they can and say it to please the court—no one wants to stand up in court and say 'I'm a biased idiot.' And a small percentage are lying flat out." Knowing that they have to work with jurors loaded with preconceptions, and believing that judges aren't thorough in their expulsion of biased individuals, attorneys feel comfortable using every method available to swing the system in their direction.
Saved from Extremes?
Does scientific jury selection even work? Real-world success rates are impossible to measure. A true controlled study would require two parallel juries, one selected at random, one professionally culled. Demographics and personality indicators improve the ability to predict a juror's decision only by 10 to 15 percent on average. So conclude psychologists Joel Lieberman and Bruce Sales from a literature review in their 2006 book Scientific Jury Selection, the only academic volume dedicated to the subject. In another review of studies, Howard University's Seltzer found that information gleaned from juror surveys could account for only 10 to 26 percent of their behavior. "In some situations attorneys can improve their jury by maybe one juror," Seltzer says. "Maybe sometimes more if they're lucky."
Scientific jury selection may be best at identifying the most extreme jurors, those most likely to drive the deliberation in a particular direction. One adamant juror in a group of 12 could create a runaway jury that pumps up the award in a civil case. In criminal cases, just one reluctant panelist can hang the whole jury.
But jurors do not make decisions alone. "There's a kind of organized buzz," says Shari Diamond, a psychologist and law professor at Northwestern University, "with looping back and repeats and corrections. It's a complicated process." DOAR's Diamante respects the unpredictability of juries despite jury selection. "How can you possibly make sure there's a certain type of outcome given the complexity of the information on one side, the complexity of the information on the other side, and then the human dynamics involved in the jury? If you can do that, when you're done let's go to Atlantic City."
If scientific jury selection is just a crapshoot, why is the industry thriving? Even when attorneys do know the social-science research showing the relative ineffectiveness of scientific jury selection—and the power of evidence—they are still willing to hire consultants for big-money civil cases. Purchasing even a small edge can prevent the aggravating post-trial "if only" game. And attorneys might have faith that their consultant bucks the trend; there's always the hope that a particular consultant is a jury-selection wizard.
"Nobody really has a crystal ball," Varinsky confides. "Would I have bet my life on Strawberry Shortcake? I would have come close to it. I was that certain of what I saw. But would I really have put my life on the line? No. There's always that unknown of human unpredictability." Fortunately, he didn't have to wager his life. He bet Scott Peterson's instead.
Tags:
art selection,
business,
father and mother,
gut level,
howard varinsky,
hundred million,
jury,
jury consultant,
jury duty,
jury selection services,
law,
level decision,
nutcase,
picket fence,
prosecution team,
Science,
scientific jury selection,
shade of red,
strawberry shortcake,
three decades,
three kids
