Perhaps the only people who can calmly refill their gas tanks in and around Washington D.C. are mathematicians. That's because statistically speaking, the actual danger of being assassinated by the D.C. sniper is minute. The odds are about one in 517,422, according to David Ropeik, director of risk communication at the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis. Our disproportionate focus on the sniper is due to something beyond hard numbers: the human mind does not think statistically when calculating personal risk.
"It is much more a psychological question than a physical one," says Ropeik. "The question of whether something is a risk is not just statistical, it is also emotional." Other factors at play include a sense of lack of control and the apparent randomness of the act, both especially relevant in the case of the D.C. sniper. When children are involved there is an even greater emotional reaction, and the more aware people are of a risk, the more they worry.
While there is no way to fully avoid overreacting, understanding the emotional factor will help keep fear in check. "Understand the emotional factors that fuel your fears so you can make judgments more wisely," says Ropeik. "Is it overreaction that raises your risk if you drive an extra 20 to get to a different gas station? Sure; that's 20 extra miles in which a car crash can happen," he says.
