New Year's is a time when people attempt to predict how they will
behave inthe coming months. Predicting the future is nearly impossible.
Yet so often we berate ourselves and others for failing to do so. How
could we have been so stupid not to have known? Why do we think we should
know what will happen? Prediction is extraordinarily hard, even for
psychologists in the business of prediction. Moreover, we may want to
reconsider whether we really want to be able to predict the future in the
first place.
We think we should know what will happen mainly because of the
confusion between prediction and hindsight. Knowing in advance that
something will occur is very different from knowing that it did occur.
There are numerous ways any event or behavior can later be understood.
Take, for example, an animated conversation we witness between two
spouses. It could be flirtatious, excited--we don't know. Later, the
couple gets divorced. Looking back, we link a causal chain of events to
that conversation, concluding that it must have been a disagreement. We
should have known they'd get divorced, we think.
Scientists have to state their predictions in advance, and they
have to be specific. It is easy to predict that someone will do something
nice, for example, if we don't specify when they will do it or what nice
means. When psychologists try to predict an outcome, they look at a group
of data, not a single instance, to determine what will happen. Michael
Jordan probably would win if he and I each had 20 opportunities at foul
shooting; I could win if we each only shot once. Chance would work in my
favor. The more data we create, the more likely it is that our different
levels of skill will be revealed. Although we wouldn't predict it, if I
was hot that day and he was emotionally distracted, maybe I'd win even
then!
People typically are concerned with their own small worlds, and not
with what may unfold over time or what happens to "most people."
Predicting the outcome of a single case is near impossible given all that
can go wrong. Will the chairs we are sitting on hold us? They will until
they finally break. When will that be? Who knows? Perhaps the glue will
finally cease to hold or the floor may be uneven in that particular spot.
We may be correct in predicting what might happen to a group, and so we
mistakenly think we should be able to predict a single instance.
And do we really want to have complete knowledge of the future? It
is ironic that freedom and control are important to us and yet we still
seek predictability. On the face of it, it would seem that the two are
related. If I can predict, I can control. A deeper analysis, however,
reveals quite a different picture. When we want light, we mindlessly flip
the light switch. We have no doubt that it will work, so we don't have to
think about it. Without doubt, there is no choice. Without choice there
is no feeling of control. Complete predictability would leave us with no
need to pay attention to anything any longer. And when would we like to
"know" everything completely so we could stop paying attention? When we
are 15, 30 or 60 years old? At what point do we want to close the future
and live in the past?
Just think about it: If we are aware of the uncertainty of going
forward, we're unlikely to blame ourselves for our failures of prediction
when looking back. If we allow for uncertainty, we're likely to stay
mindful and in the present, and, personally, that's where I want to
be.
ILLUSTRATION (COLOR)
Adapted by Ph.D.
Ellen J. Langer, Ph.D., is a professor of psychology at Harvard
University. She is the author of The Power of Mindful Learning (Perseus,
1997) and Mindfulness (Perseus, 1989).
Tags:
animated conversation,
causal chain,
confusion,
disagreement,
future,
hindsight,
michael jordan,
outcome,
past,
predicting the future,
prediction,
scientists,
witness
