Not all of Balzer's advice is heeded. Alarmed at the rising number
of consumers eating in their cars, he urged fast-food companies to make
their offerings easier to eat while driving, noting that burger
condiments invariably ooze out the sides and pizza toppings frequently
slide off the slices. Balzer also recommended that auto makers install
food trays as well as cup holders in cars. There were no takers. "No one
wants to promote eating in the car because of the liability issue," he
says.
THE MOST SURPRISING news of the 1998 report, says Balzer, is that
"for the first time, alcohol appears on dinner tables more frequently
than coffee." The percentage of people who have a drink with dinner has
been steadily rising since 1990. The trend is being driven primarily by
those aged 45 and older, who've been reading that a drink a day may help
protect against heart disease. In this group, the percentage of those who
have a daily drink has nearly doubled, from 10% in 1990 to 19% last year.
"That age group tends to glom onto health trends faster than anybody
else," Balzer explains. "It was true of low-sodium and low-fat diets.
They are always looking for an easier way--other than eating less and
exercising more to better health."
Balzer believes the uptick in drinks with dinner also signals
another significant shift in our habits: rather than subtracting
unhealthy foods or ingredients from the diet, we now prefer to add
health-promoting ones. The percentage of people who take a daily vitamin,
mineral supplement, herbal product or other dietary aid has hit a new
peak: 45%. "I tell my clients, if you put something good in your food,
tell consumers about it," Balzer advises.
WHAT DO THE FINDINGS say about coffee? Not that alcohol is
replacing java. Rather it reflects coffee's basic problem: it's
inconvenient. "You have to make it," says Balzer. Americans increasingly
want things that are either easier or cheaper. Coffee is neither and its
intake at home has held steady over the years.
The convenience factor is also what's spurring the hottest food
trend of the decade: home replacement meals. For the uninitiated, that's
industry jargon for take-out foods sold in restaurants and grocery
stores. The average American household brings home a restaurant meal
about once every 10 days, compared to once every 20 days during the
mid-1980s. "This has been a trend for as long as I have been looking at
the data," says Balzer. "We still eat most of our meals at home because
of budgetary restrictions. But we try not to cook. And if we have to
cook, we try not to make anything from scratch." Dinners that include at
least one home made item are continuing to slump, he notes, and one-dish
meals are on the rise.
LOOKING 100 YEARS INTO the future, Balzer predicts that the number
of people who are on a diet will be similar to the current figure:
one-third of all women and one-quarter of men will still be bemoaning
their weight. Myriad diet plans have been in and out of favor over the
past 15 years, Balzer notes, but "these numbers have not budged." Where
he does forsee a difference is in food preparation. Indeed, he predicts
that the way we prepare our foods will change more than what foods we
eat. The kitchen of the next century, says, Balzer, will have more
warming and heating than cooking appliances, continuing a trend that
started with the introduction of the microwave. "That's another thing I
tell my clients," he declares. "Don't ever underestimate how lazy people
can be."
TRACKING EATING PATTERNS
FOR ITS CREST (Consumer Reports on Eating Share Trends) survey, NPD
culls a mailing list of 300,000 names (gathered from telephone
directories, automobile registrations and other sources) I and invites
13,000 families to fill out a form covering foods eaten in the household
during a two-week period. There are columns for each family member
(usually the mother completes the survey) in which to record meals eaten
at restaurants as well as at school, hospitals, employee cafeterias and
also at home. For meals taken in restaurants, NPD tracks the name of the
eatery, its category (fast food, for example), the meal's cost and what
was ordered (NPD assigns numbers to 250 categories of food and beverages,
everything from boiled shellfish to croissants).
About 3,000 of the CREST households are asked to participate in the
more detailed National Eating Trends (NET) survey. Respondents complete
forms noting the ingredients, label, brand and site of purchase of every
ingredient in every dish they eat at home as well as which appliance they
used to prepare the food and the size of the portion they consumed. The
results are mailed to NPD every two weeks. Participants receive no money,
but are rewarded with gifts, such as clocks and cookware.
How reliable are these food journals? "When I do it on a ill, daily
basis, it's quite accurate," maintains Katie Wagner. "But if I slip up
and miss a day, it's not as accurate." The very act of keeping a food
diary can change behavior "If I've already written down what we're going
to eat for dinner and my husband calls up and says, 'Let's take the
family out,' I tell him to forget it, I'm not going to erase it," notes
Ingrid Frisinger, a Michigan housewife.
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