How to handle the optimistic bias? It all hinges on the likely consequences of underestimation.
o If missing a projected deadline is likely to land you in trouble, you might want to get your boss's input before you make a firm commitment. While people underestimate their own finish times, they overestimate others', find Roger Buehler, Ph.D., of Simon Fraser University, Dale Griffin, Ph.D., and Michael Ross, Ph.D., of the University of Waterloo. Observers who know both your future plans and your past performance--your boss likely fits that bill--take it all into account. As a result they usually give more conservative estimates. In fact, they frequently allot too much time. So to get the most accurate picture, consider your estimate, your boss's, and split the difference.
o When your supervisor isn't available, Buehler recommends taking some time to think about your track record on similar tasks. Then relate those experiences to your present project. Say getting previous projects done meant meeting with a chronically unavailable coworker to gather vital information. If that colleague's in the loop this time, keep it in mind as you make your prediction.
